Geologic Prediction Model for Tunneling
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 113, Issue 4
Abstract
Geologic uncertainty in underground construction often leads to design and construction conservatism and thus to inflated costs. This paper presents a general model for the probabilistic prediction of tunnel geology as a basis for developing more effective tunnel design and construction decision support systems. The geologic conditions along the tunnel alignment are modeled by a set of geologic parameters (e.g., rock type, joint density, degree of weathering, etc.), each following a continuous‐space, discrete‐state Markov process. The state probabilities for each geologic parameter are initially based on general geologic information and are later updated to reflect the outcomes and reliability of the location‐specific, nondeterministic observations provided by exploration programs. The resulting posterior geologic parameter profiles are aggregated into a single probabilistic ground class profile that can be used for determining optimal tunnel design and construction strategies. The model is illustrated by an example application.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 113 • Issue 4 • December 1987
Pages: 569 - 590
Copyright
Copyright © 1987 ASCE.
History
Published online: Dec 1, 1987
Published in print: Dec 1987
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