TECHNICAL PAPERS
Sep 1, 1983

Stochastic Network Model for Planning Scheduling

Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 109, Issue 3

Abstract

A stochastic network model consisting of dependent and independent random variables is developed for construction scheduling. The network model is based on Monte‐Carlo simulation. Data for each network activity consist of a time distribution for the activity under optimal conditions and a series of time distributions for various problems that may lengthen the activity completion time. Dependencies between network activities may be modelled; also, time dependencies for a network activity may be modelled. The implementation of the model is discussed.

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References

1.
Campbell, D. W., “Schedule Risk Analysis,” Proceedings of the 4th Annual Seminar Symposium, Project Management Institute, Drexel Hill, Pa., Oct., 1972.
2.
Crandall, K. C., “Probabilistic Time Scheduling,” Journal of the Construction Division, ASCE, Vol. 102, No. CO3, Sept., 1976, pp. 415–423.
3.
Crandall, K. C., “Analyses of Schedule Simulation,” Journal of the Construction Division, ASCE, Vol. 102, No. CO3, Sept., 1977, pp. 387–394.
4.
Crandall, K. C., “Scheduling under Uncertainty,” Proceedings of the 9th Annual Seminar Symposium, Project Management Institute, Drexel Hill, Pa., Oct., 1977, pp. 336–343.
5.
Feiler, A. M., “Project Risk Management,” presented at the May 17, 1972, INTERNET 72 Congress, Stockholm, Sweden.
6.
Pritsker, A. B., Modeling and Analysis Using Q‐Gert Networks, Halsted Press Book—John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, N.Y., 1977.
7.
Van Slyke, R. M., “Monte Carlo Methods and the PERT Problem,” Operations Research, Vol. 11, No. 5, Sept., 1963, pp. 839–860.
8.
Woolery, J. C., Stochastic Network Models Consisting of Dependent and Independent Random Variables for Construction Scheduling and Processes, Technical Report No. 7, Construction Engineering and Management, Univ. of California, Berkeley, Calif., Feb., 1979.

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Go to Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 109Issue 3September 1983
Pages: 342 - 354

History

Published online: Sep 1, 1983
Published in print: Sep 1983

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Authors

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John C. Woolery
Estimator, Morrison‐Knudsen Co., Inc., Lafayette, Calif.
Keith C. Crandall, Members, ASCE
Prof. of Civ. Engrg., Univ. of California, Berkeley, Calif.

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