Journal of Urban Planning and Development

This paper investigates the possibility of developing trip generation models using data collected at two or more points in time in independent cross-sectional travel surveys conducted in the same urban area. Alternative methods for formulating a forecasting model based on the availability of cross-sectional data from two time periods are presented. Models are then estimated on the study data and the models assessed in terms of their ability to replicate the number of trips made at the disaggregate household level, and at the aggregate traffic zone level in the two model-estimation datasets, respectively. The performance of these jointly estimated models is compared to the predictive performance of a conventional single cross-section trip generation model estimated on each period’s data only. The formulated models are then applied to forecast trips at the disaggregate household level, and at the aggregate traffic zone level on a third independent cross-sectional dataset collected in the same urban area but at a different point in time. Again, forecast performance of the formulated jointly estimated models is compared to forecast performance of the conventional model estimated on this third independent dataset. The results show that well specified joint models estimated on data from two time periods yield superior disaggregate and aggregate forecasts to those obtained from conventional forecasting models, which are estimated with data from a single cross-sectional survey.

An areal elderly migration model (AEMM) was developed to assess the demand of regional development projects targeted towards elderly people. The AEMM was theoretically developed with adaptation of the gravity model to represent spatial interaction regarding amenities. Areal characteristics were classified for estimating the amenities from the perspective of net migration. From 1990 to 2000, data were acquired from the United States Census Bureau, Pennsylvania Spatial Data Access, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Pennsylvania Fish & Boating and National Climate Data Center in 67 Pennsylvania counties for analysis and application. The results revealed that elderly migration can be explained not only by areal characteristics but also by spatial interaction considering the population, distances, and amenities of surrounding areas. Elderly migration is more significantly affected by social and economic conditions than natural conditions at the county level.

The redevelopment of brownfields has been promoted heavily in recent years to return contaminated lands to productive use. However, concerns about liability can complicate and hinder remediation efforts. The proponent of redevelopment faces possible legal action if the site poses health risks to users of the site and adjacent sites. Liability is often treated as a single factor but it is in fact composed of various elements that are interwoven with the future site use and chosen remedial action. This paper presents a structured method for estimating liability and its relationship to site use and remedial action. It critically examines the factors that contribute to liability and how the results can be integrated into the selection of the most appropriate site use and remedial action. The method offers a tiered approach for evaluating liability, starting with a simpler, uniform contamination scenario and progressing to a more complex, nonuniform situation. The resulting analysis is formatted in a matrix adaptable to multi-objective decision decision-making. A hypothetical example illustrates how liability can be examined using this method.

The port of Hong Kong is the primary import/export hub for the Pearl River Delta. However, with the exception of Fung, rigorous attempts in forecasting cargo traffic for the port have been lacking. The official forecast made by the Port and Maritime Board, on which policy decisions were based, was hampered by technical flaws. This paper forecasts Hong Kong’s port cargo throughput by estimating a cointegrated error correction model. The baseline forecast projects lower throughput volume than the Port Maritime Board (PMB) does, but it gradually surpasses PMB’s projection in the later years of the forecast period. This has important implications for the port’s future infrastructure requirements and the role it will play in the regional context.

The Small Business Liability and Brownfields Revitalization Act of 2002 reflects a continuing national commitment to redevelop and return brownfields to productive use. As brownfields are being redeveloped, there are a growing number of projects where transportation has played a critical role. Through ten case studies of contemporary brownfield redevelopments, this paper discusses the roles that transportation can play in promoting brownfields redevelopment. The cases show that transportation can either hinder or drive brownfields redevelopment. While obsolete transportation infrastructure makes brownfield corridors or areas less attractive to potential developers, transportation projects strategically designed and located to improve accessibility between brownfield corridors and major economic centers tend to drive brownfields redevelopment. Such projects can be accelerated by including them in the metropolitan and state transportation improvement programs. The cases show that municipal, county, and other officials can proactively use their long-range transportation planning activities to stimulate brownfields redevelopment and accelerate the associated economic, environmental, and social benefits.

The quality of existing data about the use of urban trails is poor, and planners need better data to plan new trails and manage existing ones. This note presents descriptive analyses of pedestrian and bicycle traffic counts taken with infrared counters on urban multiuse greenway trails in Indiana during the fall 2000 and spring 2001. Monthly traffic, average daily, weekday, and weekend traffic, and average hourly and peak hour traffic are presented for trails in six municipalities and for five locations on one trail in Indianapolis. Trail traffic was higher in municipalities with larger populations and higher on weekend days than on weekdays. Peak hour traffic accounted for higher proportions of traffic on weekdays than on weekend days. Traffic at different locations on one trail in Indianapolis varied considerably. Planners can use these results to estimate the demand for proposed trails, describe congestion, as inputs to benefit–cost analyses and level of service studies, and help manage use.