Improving Site-Dependent Wind Turbine Performance Prediction Accuracy Using Machine Learning
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part B: Mechanical Engineering
Volume 8, Issue 2
Abstract
Data-driven wind turbine performance predictions, such as power and loads, are important for planning and operation. Current methods do not take site-specific conditions such as turbulence intensity and shear into account, which could result in errors of up to 10%. In this work, four different machine learning models (k-nearest neighbors regression, random forest regression, extreme gradient boosting regression and artificial neural networks (ANN)) are trained and tested, first on a simulation dataset and then on a real dataset. It is found that machine learning methods that take site-specific conditions into account can improve prediction accuracy by a factor of two to three, depending on the error indicator chosen. Similar results are observed for multi-output ANNs for simulated in- and out-of-plane rotor blade tip deflection and root loads. Future work focuses on understanding transferability of results between different turbines within a wind farm and between different wind turbine types. This article is available in the ASME Digital Collection at https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4053513.
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Copyright © 2022 by ASME.
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Received: Mar 31, 2021
Revision received: Jan 11, 2022
Published online: Mar 1, 2022
Published in print: Jun 1, 2022
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