Probabilistic Resilience Measurement for Rural Electric Distribution System Affected by Hurricane Events
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 6, Issue 2
Abstract
This paper proposes a fully probabilistic and analytical measurement framework for assessing the resilience of linear power-distribution systems affected by hurricane wind. The topology of rural power-distribution systems can be largely characterized as a set of linear subsystems that emanate from one power substation and individually feature zero redundancy. Moreover, rural power-distribution systems are less robust owing to their high vulnerability to material aging, and they demand longer recovery times due to low socioeconomic resources in rural areas. The proposed framework includes a mechanical analysis of a coupled wood pole and feeder line as a system unit, a definition of component restoration and system-level recovery functions, and, finally, a definition of a new resilience measure, referred to as total mean system resilience (TMSR). Numerical experimentation is provided that validates the effectiveness and analytical tractability of the framework. Insight into how physical aging, local resourcefulness, and spatial sparseness interplay and affect the system resilience is given quantitatively in this paper.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are available from the corresponding author by request. These include all the MATLAB programs and codes used to compute and generate and plot the tables and figures in this paper.
References
Anghel, M., K. A. Werley, and A. E. Motter. 2007. “Stochastic model for power grid dynamics.” In Proc., 2007 40th Annual Hawaii Int. Conf. on System Sciences (HICSS’07), 113. New York: IEEE.
ANSI (American National Standards Institute). 2017. Wood poles: Specifications and dimensions. ANSI O5.1. New York: ANSI.
Archer, C. L., and M. Z. Jacobson. 2003. “Spatial and temporal distributions of U.S. winds and wind power at 80 m derived from measurements.” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 108 (D9). https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002076.
Ayyub, B. M. 2014. “Systems resilience for multihazard environments: Definition, metrics, and valuation for decision making.” Risk Anal. 34 (2): 340–355. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12093.
Bier, V. M., E. R. Gratz, N. J. Haphuriwat, W. Magua, and K. R. Wierzbicki. 2007. “Methodology for identifying near-optimal interdiction strategies for a power transmission system.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 92 (9): 1155–1161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2006.08.007.
Bilal, A. M. 2015. “Practical resilience metrics for planning, design, and decision making.” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. A: Civ. Eng. 1 (3): 04015008. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0000826.
Bilal, A. M., and K.-L. Lai. 1990. “Structural reliability assessment using Latin hypercube sampling.” In Proc., 5th Int. Conf. on Structural Safety and Reliability 1989 (ICOSSAR’89), 1177–1184. New York: ASCE.
Brennan, M. A., and C. G. Flint. 2007. “Uncovering the hidden dimensions of rural disaster mitigation: Capacity building through community emergency response teams.” South. Rural Sociol. 22 (2): 111–126.
Britt, E. 2017. “Hurricanes Harvey and Irma: Electric industry impacts, restoration, and cost recovery.” Infrastructure Accessed June 1, 2019. http://www.dwmrlaw.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ABA_INFRA57-1.pdf.
Brown, R. E., and H. L. Willis. 2006. “The economics of aging infrastructure.” IEEE Power Energy Mag. 4 (3): 36–43. https://doi.org/10.1109/MPAE.2006.1632452.
Bruneau, M., S. E. Chang, R. T. Eguchi, G. C. Lee, T. D. O’Rourke, A. M. Reinhorn, M. Shinozuka, K. Tierney, W. A. Wallace, and D. Von Winterfeldt. 2003. “A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities.” Earthquake Spectra 19 (4): 733–752. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1623497.
Burbank, K., T. Davison, S. Saifee, G. WHite, C. Beck, and D. Quan. 2005. “An estimate of lost earnings due to electric supply disruption.” In The case of Florida’s 2004 hurricane season. Orlando, FL: FEMA.
Carlos Agustín, E.-S. 2013. “Estimation of extreme wind speeds by using mixed distributions.” Ingeniería, Investigación y Tecnología 14 (2): 153–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1405-7743(13)72233-9.
Chen, C., J. Wang, F. Qiu, and D. Zhao. 2016. “Resilient distribution system by microgrids formation after natural disasters.” IEEE Trans. Smart Grid 7 (2): 958–966. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSG.2015.2429653.
Cimellaro, G. P., A. M. Reinhorn, and M. Bruneau. 2010. “Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience.” Eng. Struct. 32 (11): 3639–3649. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2010.08.008.
Dagher, H. J. 2006. Reliability-based design of utility pole structures. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Danica Coto. 2018. “Lights slowly come on for Puerto Ricans in rural areas.” Accessed June 1, 2019. https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2018/0716/Lights-slowly-come-on-for-Puerto-Ricans-in-rural-areas.
Davidson, R. A., H. Liu, I. K. Sarpong, P. Sparks, and D. V. Rosowsky. 2003. “Electric power distribution system performance in Carolina hurricanes.” Nat. Hazard. Rev. 4 (1): 36–45. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2003)4:1(36).
DHS (Department of Homeland Security). 2011. Presidential policy directive/PPD-8: National preparedness. Washington, DC: DHS.
Dueñas-Osorio, L., J. I. Craig, B. J. Goodno, and A. Bostrom. 2007. “Interdependent response of networked systems.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 13 (3): 185–194. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2007)13:3(185).
Edwards, P., and R. B. Hurst. 2001. “Level-crossing statistics of the horizontal wind speed in the planetary surface boundary layer.” Interdiscip. J. Nonlinear Sci. 11 (3): 611–618. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1379310.
Espinoza, S., M. Panteli, P. Mancarella, and H. Rudnick. 2016. “Multi-phase assessment and adaptation of power systems resilience to natural hazards.” Electr. Power Syst. Res. 136 (Jul): 352–361. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsr.2016.03.019.
Gao, H., Y. Chen, Y. Xu, and C. Liu. 2016. “Resilience-oriented critical load restoration using microgrids in distribution systems.” IEEE Trans. Smart Grid 7 (6): 2837–2848. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSG.2016.2550625.
Gascó-Hernandez, M., M. Zheleva, P. Bogdanov, and J. R. Gil-Garcia. 2019. “Towards a socio-technical framework for bridging the digital divide in rural emergency preparedness and response: Integrating user adoption, heterogeneous wide-area networks, and advanced data science.” In Proc., 20th Annual Int. Conf. on Digital Government Research, Mohamed bin Rashid School of Government, 362–369. New York: Association for Computing Machinery.
Guikema, S. D., and J. P. Goffelt. 2008. “A flexible count data regression model for risk analysis.” Risk Anal. 28 (1): 213–223. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01014.x.
Impollonia, N., G. Ricciardi, and F. Saitta. 2011. “Statics of elastic cables under 3D point forces.” Int. J. Solids Struct. 48 (9): 1268–1276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsolstr.2011.01.007.
Kapucu, N., C. V. Hawkins, and F. I. Rivera. 2013. “Disaster preparedness and resilience for rural communities.” Risk Hazard. Crisis Public Policy 4 (4): 215–233. https://doi.org/10.1002/rhc3.12043.
Kenward, A., and U. Raja. 2014. “Blackout: Extreme weather, climate change and power outages.” Accessed June 1, 2019. https://assets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/PowerOutages.pdf.
Kwasinski, A. 2016. “Quantitative model and metrics of electrical grids’ resilience evaluated at a power distribution level.” Energies 9 (2): 93. https://doi.org/10.3390/en9020093.
Li, J., X. Ma, C. Liu, and K. P. Schneider. 2014. “Distribution system restoration with microgrids using spanning tree search.” IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 29 (6): 3021–3029. https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2014.2312424.
Liu, H., R. A. Davidson, D. V. Rosowsky, and J. R. Stedinger. 2005. “Negative binomial regression of electric power outages in hurricanes.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 11 (4): 258–267. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2005)11:4(258).
Morrell, J. J. 2012. Wood pole maintenance manual: 2012 edition, research contribution 51. Corvallis, OR: Forest Research Laboratory, Oregon State Univ.
Ouyang, M., and L. Dueñas-Osorio. 2014. “Multi-dimensional hurricane resilience assessment of electric power systems.” Struct. Saf. 48 (May): 15–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2014.01.001.
Ouyang, M., L. Dueñas-Osorio, and X. Min. 2012. “A three-stage resilience analysis framework for urban infrastructure systems.” Struct. Saf. 36–37 (May): 23–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2011.12.004.
Pang, W., Z. Chen, F. Liu, and R. Holmes. 2013. “Failure risk of 230 kV electricity transmission lines in South Carolina under hurricane wind hazards.” In Proc., ATC & SEI Conf. on Advances in Hurricane Engineering 2012. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Panteli, M., and P. Mancarella. 2017. “Modeling and evaluating the resilience of critical electrical power infrastructure to extreme weather events.” IEEE Syst. J. 11 (3): 1733–1742. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSYST.2015.2389272.
Panteli, M., C. Pickering, S. Wilkinson, R. Dawson, and P. Mancarella. 2017. “Power system resilience to extreme weather: Fragility modeling, probabilistic impact assessment, and adaptation measures.” IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 32 (5): 3747–3757. https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2016.2641463.
Reed, D. A., K. C. Kapur, and R. D. Christie. 2009. “Methodology for assessing the resilience of networked infrastructure.” IEEE Syst. J. 3 (2): 174–180. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSYST.2009.2017396.
Sakai, T., M. Nakajima, K. Tokaji, and N. Hasegawa. 1997. “Statistical distribution patterns in mechanical and fatigue properties of metallic materials.” Mater. Sci. Res. Int. 3 (2): 63–74. https://doi.org/10.2472/jsms.46.6Appendix_63.
Southwire. 2013. Bare copper wire and cable. Carrollton, GA: Southwire Company.
Torrent, R. J. 1978. “The log-normal distribution: A better fitness for the results of mechanical testing of materials.” Matériaux et Constr. 11 (4): 235–245. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02551768.
Vivekanandan, N. 2012. “Comparison of estimators of extreme value distributions for wind data analysis.” Bonfring Int. J. Data Min. 2 (3): 16–20. https://doi.org/10.9756/BIJDM.1503.
Vugrin, E. D., A. R. Castillo, and C. A. Silva-Monroy. 2017. “Resilience metrics for the electric power system: A performance-based approach. SAND2017-1493. Livermore, CA: Sandia National Laboratories.
Wang, C.-H., R. H. Leicester, and M. Nguyen. 2008. “Probabilistic procedure for design of untreated timber poles in-ground under attack of decay fungi.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 93 (3): 476–481. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2006.12.007.
Warwick, M., and M. Hoffman. 2016. Electricity distribution system baseline report for DOE quadrennial energy review. PNNL-25187. Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
Yao, Y., T. Edmunds, D. Papageorgiou, and R. Alvarez. 2007. “Trilevel optimization in power network defense.” IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. C (Appl. Rev.) 37 (4): 712–718. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSMCC.2007.897487.
Yuan, H., W. Zhang, J. Zhu, and A. C. Bagtzoglou. 2018. “Resilience assessment of overhead power distribution systems under strong winds for hardening prioritization.” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. A: Civ. Eng. 4 (4): 04018037. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0000988.
Zhu, D., D. Cheng, R. P. Broadwater, and C. Scirbona. 2007. “Storm modeling for prediction of power distribution system outages.” Electr. Power Syst. Res. 77 (8): 973–979. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsr.2006.08.020.
Zona, A., O. Kammouh, and G. P. Cimellaro. 2020. “Resourcefulness quantification approach for resilient communities and countries.” Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 46: 101509. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101509.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 6 • Issue 2 • June 2020
Copyright
©2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 20, 2019
Accepted: Dec 6, 2019
Published online: Mar 31, 2020
Published in print: Jun 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Aug 31, 2020
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.