Investigation of Effects of Time Preference and Risk Perception on Life-Cycle Management of Civil Infrastructure
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 6, Issue 1
Abstract
Civil infrastructure systems have two essential characteristics: long service life and low probability of failure. Under these circumstances, life-cycle management (LCM) of civil infrastructure involves time preference of decision-makers on potential gains associated with maintenance actions and the perception of low probability (i.e., risk perception). In the decision-making process, decision-makers are likely to discount the desirability of decision alternatives involving future gains and low probabilities. This attitude is usually referred to as delay and probability discounting. This paper presents a novel approach for the LCM of civil infrastructure considering delay and probability discounting. The model and parameters used in this approach are obtained from a survey conducted among practicing civil engineers. The survey involved low probabilities and long time horizons commonly encountered in the field of civil engineering. The proposed approach is applied to the LCM of an existing highway bridge. It is found that probability discounting can reflect the risk aversion in the decision-making process, while the delay discounting may hinder timely maintenance actions, leading to higher life-cycle risk of civil infrastructure.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are available from the corresponding author by request. The items include the questionnaire and the raw data collected in the survey.
Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful for the financial support received from: (1) the US Office of Naval Research (ONR) Award Nos. N00014-08-1-0188, N00014-12-0023, and N00014-16-1-2299; (2) the US National Science Foundation Grant No. CMMI-1537926; (3) the US Department of Transportation Region 3 University Transportation Center Award No. CIAM-UTC-REG6; and (4) the Pennsylvania Infrastructure Technology Alliance (PITA). The opinions and conclusions presented in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring organizations.
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ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 6 • Issue 1 • March 2020
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©2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Feb 12, 2019
Accepted: Jul 3, 2019
Published online: Jan 6, 2020
Published in print: Mar 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Jun 6, 2020
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