Probabilistic Risk Management Framework for Tolerance-Related Issues in Modularized Projects: Local and Global Perspectives
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 6, Issue 1
Abstract
Modular components and assemblies involve complex geometric relationships whereby excessive geometric variability in a critical component can affect the overall geometry of the aggregated and assembled structure onsite. These unique geometric relationships can expose modular projects to a number of related risks that propagate from one to another by means of escalation phenomena. Improper assessment and reactive management of these related risks typically results in extensive site-fit rework, cost overruns, schedule delays, and quality issues. Current modularization practices and previously developed risk management frameworks/toolkits lack a practical methodology for quantitatively evaluating the unique relationships among tolerance-related risks and for proactively managing their impact. These considerations motivated the research introduced in this paper: the development of a framework for the holistic assessment and efficient management of excessive geometric variability risks in modular construction projects. In the framework presented here, a classical risk assessment technique, in which a probability-impact risk model is employed for evaluating risks individually from a local perspective, is linked with an innovative technique for considering interactions among risks from a global perspective, which employs the concepts of a design structure matrix and pairwise comparisons using the analytical hierarchy process. The results of a case study conducted for validation purposes demonstrate that the developed framework can provide industry practitioners (owners, designers, fabricators, and contractors) with a better understanding of the risk profile for a project as well as new insights into the development of proactive mitigation strategies from both a local and a global perspective.
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Acknowledgments
The authors of this research would like to acknowledge the financial support of the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) and PCL-Permanent Modular Construction for providing the necessary information about the main case study presented in this article.
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ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 6 • Issue 1 • March 2020
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©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 22, 2018
Accepted: Jun 12, 2019
Published online: Nov 28, 2019
Published in print: Mar 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Apr 28, 2020
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