Epistemic Uncertainties in Fragility Functions Derived from Post-Disaster Damage Assessments
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 4, Issue 2
Abstract
Fragility functions define the probability of meeting or exceeding some damage measure (DM) for a given level of engineering demand (e.g., base shear) or hazard intensity measure (IM; e.g., wind speed, and peak ground acceleration). Empirical fragility functions specifically refer to fragility functions that are developed from posthazard damage assessments, and, as such, they define the performance of structures or systems as they exist in use and under true natural hazard loading. This paper describes major sources of epistemic uncertainty in empirical fragility functions for building performance under natural hazard loading, and develops and demonstrates methods for quantifying these uncertainties using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Uncertainties are demonstrated using a dataset of 1,241 residential structures damaged in the May 22, 2011, Joplin, Missouri, tornado. Uncertainties in the intensity measure (wind speed) estimates were the largest contributors to the overall uncertainty in the empirical fragility functions. With a sufficient number of samples, uncertainties because of potential misclassification of the observed damage levels and sampling error were relatively small. The methods for quantifying uncertainty in empirical fragility functions are demonstrated using tornado damage observations, but are applicable to any other natural hazard as well.
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Acknowledgments
The first author gratefully acknowledges the support provided by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant No. GMO2432. The second author gratefully acknowledges the support provided by the National Science Foundation under research Grant No. 1150975.
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Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 4 • Issue 2 • June 2018
Copyright
©2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 25, 2016
Accepted: Nov 2, 2017
Published online: Mar 16, 2018
Published in print: Jun 1, 2018
Discussion open until: Aug 16, 2018
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