Detection of Stationary Markovian Zones in a Geologically Heterogeneous Area
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 3, Issue 4
Abstract
The stationary Markov process model is widely used to predict the geological conditions in tunnel excavation projects. However, the validity of the stationary assumption made in the model is questionable. The prediction error caused by the assumption has not been investigated in previous studies. In this study, the significance of a stationary Markovian zone detection is evaluated by comparing the predicted geological conditions with the real soil layer distributions in boreholes. A new method is proposed to detect the stationary Markovian zones in a tunnel-covered area. Borehole data from Perth, Australia are collected to illustrate the significance of the stationary Markovian zone detection and the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the stationary assumption leads to considerable errors in the predicted number, location, and thickness of soil layers. The proposed method is robust with respect to the starting point of a detection.
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Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Macau Science and Technology Development Fund (FDCT) 125/2014/A3 and the University of Macau Research Fund MYRG2015-00112-FST.
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Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 3 • Issue 4 • December 2017
Copyright
©2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Oct 3, 2016
Accepted: May 18, 2017
Published online: Sep 7, 2017
Published in print: Dec 1, 2017
Discussion open until: Feb 7, 2018
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