Scenario Deduction on Fire Accidents for Oil–Gas Storage and Transportation Based on Case Statistics and a Dynamic Bayesian Network
Publication: Journal of Hazardous, Toxic, and Radioactive Waste
Volume 24, Issue 3
Abstract
In order to solve the problem of unclear evolution paths after oil–gas storage and transportation accidents, which lead to a lack of targeted accident emergency, delayed disposal measures, and further deterioration of the accident, based on the existing accident scenario-response theory, this article summarizes 17 basic scenarios in oil–gas storage and transportation by analyzing 116 accident cases. Moreover, the accident scenario expressions are given in time and space dimensions, and general scenario evolution paths of fire accidents for oil–gas storage and transportation are constructed. On this basis, a dynamic scenario deduction network model is established by using a dynamic Bayesian network. In this model, key scenario nodes and their final scenario probabilities are determined in consideration of statistical probability obtained by the actual accident cases, empirical probability given by domain expert’s scoring, and state probability calculated by joint probability formula of a dynamic Bayesian network. As a case study, the scenario deduction process and result of a Dalian 7.16 accident are analyzed to verify the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed method. According to the proposed scenario deduction method, it can help decision-makers to make more targeted emergency disposal measures.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
This work was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 51404052, 71571025, and 71774019, and the Youth Foundation of Humanities and Social Science Research of Ministry of Education of China under Grant 17YJAZH115.
References
Agreh, O. Y., and A. Ghaffari-Hadigheh. 2018. “Application of Dempster-Shafer theory in combining the experts’ opinions in DEA.” J. Oper. Res. Soc. 9: 1–11.
Britkov, V., and G. Sergeev. 1998. “Risk management: Role of social factors in major industrial accidents.” Saf. Sci. 30 (1–2): 173–181.
Chang, M. S., Y. L. Tseng, and J.-W. Chen. 2007. “A scenario planning approach for the flood emergency logistics preparation problem under uncertainty.” Transp. Res. Part E 43 (6): 737–754.
Chu, P.-S., and X. Zhao. 2011. “Bayesian analysis for extreme climatic events: A review.” Atmos. Res. 102: 243–262.
Circular of the Office of the Security Committee of the State Council. 2011. Investigation and Treatment of Four Accidents in Dalian’s “7.16” Oil Pipeline Explosion and Fire. Accessed November 28, 2018. http://www.esafety.cn/law/67499.html.
Fan, J. Y. 2003. “Statistical analysis of 1050 safety accidents data in oil depots.” Oil Depot Gas Station 6: 19–21.
Heath, R. 1998. “Dealing with the complete crisis—the crisis management shell structure.” Saf. Sci. 30 (1–2): 139–150.
Jiang, H., and J. Huang. 2012. “The study on the issues of scenario evolvement in real-time decision making of infrequent fatal emergencies.” J. Huazhong Univ. Sci. Technol. 13 (1): 18–23.
Kowalski-Trakofler, K. M., C. Vaught, and T. Scharf. 2003. “Judgment and decision-making under stress: An overview for emergency managers.” Int. J. Emerg. Manage. 1 (3): 278–289.
Li, F., and H. M. Wang. 2016. “Research on unconventional flood emergencies scenario analysis and generation based on knowledge element.” Soft Sci. 4: 140–144.
Li, J. H., D. Y. Xia, and X. P. Wu. 2014. “Scenario analysis of unconventional emergency disaster accidents based on the knowledge elements and dynamic Bayesian networks.” J. Saf. Environ. 14 (4): 165–170.
Li, Y. C., Z. H. Liu, and J. Z. Jia. 2017. “Statistic analysis of chemical enterprises accidents occurring in China during 2006–2015.” Appl. Chem. Ind. 46 (8): 1620–1623.
Mahmoud, M. et al. 2009. “A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making.” Environ. Model. Softw. 24 (7): 798–808.
Qian, J., Y. Liu, and C. Liu. 2015. “Study on case analysis and scenario deduction based on multi-dimensional scenario space method.” Syst. Eng. Theory Pract. 35 (10): 2588–2595.
Sheng, Y. 2017. “Study on assessment method of emergency preparedness capability based on scenario construction technology.” J. Saf. Sci. Technol. 13 (10): 43–47.
Sinha, R. 2005. “Impact of experience on decision-making in emergency situation.” Extended Essay 15: 1–35.
Song, Y. H., H. X. Liu, and X. Y. Jiang. 2018. “Research on scenario evolution of food safety incidents based on knowledge element and Bayesian network.” J. China Soc. Sci. Tech. Inf. 37 (7): 712–720.
Sun, C., S. B. Zhong, and Y. Deng. 2017. “Scenario deduction-based emergency rescue plan assessment and decision optimization of urban rainstorm water-logging: A case study of Beijing.” Acta Geogr. Sin. 72 (5): 804–816.
Wang, N., Y. Guo, and H. Y. Huang. 2015. “Research on scenario representation and storage model of the emergency cases based on knowledge element.” Syst. Eng. Theory Pract. 35 (11): 2939–2949.
Wang, N., Y. Guo, and G. C. Lu. 2017. “Research on emergency decision-making support method for scenario response based on emergency cases.” Oper. Res. Manage. Sci. 1: 68–75.
Wang, N., and H. Y. Liu. 2016. “Hybrid reasoning model of emergency scenario evolution based on knowledge element.” J. China Soc. Sci. Tech. Inf. 11: 1197–1207.
Wang, N., X. S. Xie, and H. Y. Liu. 2019. “Validation method of emergency deduction rules based on cases.” J. Syst. Eng. 34 (2): 146–157.
Wang, X. P., S. J. Fan, and J. H. Ruan. 2013. “System framework of natural disaster emergency management based on scenario.” J. UESTC 3: 17–21.
Wei, L. Y. 2016. The emergency management for electric power systems based on the scenario construction. Beijing: Beijing Jiaotong Univ.
Xu, Y. B., T. Wang, and B. X. Song. 2010. “Quantitative analysis of domino accident in oil tank area caused by pool fire.” In Proc., Papers Collection of the 2010 Annual Conf. of Science and Technology of China Fire Protection Association. Beijing, China: China Fire Protection Association in Beijing.
Yang, Y., J. Z. Liu, and S. G. Fu. 2009. Safety evaluation and emergency rescue technology of oil depot. Beijing: China Petrochemical Press.
Yu, F., X. Y. Li, and Q. Y. Sun. 2015. “Design of the emergency case pedigree for scenario response.” Syst. Eng. Theory Pract. 35 (10): 2596–2605.
Zhang, M. H., L. She, and B. Geng. 2017. “Study on similarity of structured emergencies based on scenarios.” Chin. J. Manage. Sci. 25 (1): 151–159.
Zhang, Q. L. 2014. Analysis of typical fire cases of oil storage tanks at home and abroad. Tianjin: Tianjin Univ. Press.
Zhang, Y. Y., and N. D. Yang. 2015. “Mechanism study on how decision-maker’s emotion affects the emergency decision-making: A theoretical framework.” J. Intell. 10: 65–70.
Zhou, N. 2012. Introduction to safety management of Oil and Gas storage and transportation. Beijing: China Petrochemical Press.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hazardous, Toxic, and Radioactive Waste
Volume 24 • Issue 3 • July 2020
Copyright
© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 1, 2019
Accepted: Oct 25, 2019
Published online: Mar 24, 2020
Published in print: Jul 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Aug 24, 2020
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.