Closed-Form Fragility Estimates, Parameter Sensitivity, and Bayesian Updating for RC Columns
Publication: Journal of Engineering Mechanics
Volume 133, Issue 7
Abstract
Reinforced concrete (RC) columns are the most critical components in bridges under seismic excitation. In this paper, a simple closed-form formulation to estimate the fragility of RC columns is developed. The formulation is used to estimate the conditional probability of failure of an example column for given shear and deformation demands. The estimated fragilities are as accurate as more sophisticated estimates (i.e., predictive fragilities) and do not require any reliability software. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify to which parameter(s) the reliability of the example column is most sensitive. The closed-form formulation uses probabilistic capacity models. A Bayesian procedure is presented to update existing probabilistic models with new data. The model updating process can incorporate different types of information, including laboratory test data, field observations, and subjective engineering judgment, as they become available.
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Acknowledgments
The writers wish to thank Professor Terje Haukaas of the University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, for helpful discussions and suggestions.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Engineering Mechanics
Volume 133 • Issue 7 • July 2007
Pages: 833 - 843
Copyright
© 2007 ASCE.
History
Received: Oct 14, 2005
Accepted: Dec 14, 2006
Published online: Jul 1, 2007
Published in print: Jul 2007
Notes
Note. Associate Editor: Arvid Naess
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