Impact of Administrative Division Adjustments on Urban Shrinkage: Evidence from Chinese Counties
Publication: Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 150, Issue 4
Abstract
Numerous shrinking cities have emerged in the new development stage of China, and the authorities have tried to adopt the policy pool of abolishing counties and establishing districts to alleviate urban shrinkage. This study uses urban nighttime light data from 2010 to 2017 to determine whether the policy is effective in a Difference-in-Difference model framework. We find that China's urban shrinkage shows a shrinkage–expansion cycle, and the policy of removing counties and establishing districts has a significant effect on the population of the counties, which indicates that the policy can ease urban shrinkage. Specifically, the positive effect is stronger for counties belonging to cities with higher administrative rank, and for cities located in the East region and Southwest region. Our study has great practical implications for the governance of shrinking cities and promoting sustainable urban development.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
All data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by Humanities and Social Science Fund of Ministry of Education of China [Grant No. JYSK20230010] and National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant No. 71874041].
References
Blanco, H., M. Alberti, R. Olshansky, and A. O'Neill. 2009. “Shaken, shrinking, hot, impoverished, and informal: Emerging research agendas in planning.” Prog. Plann. 72 (4): 195–250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2009.09.001.
Chen, W. Y., and D. T. Wang. 2013. “Urban forest development in China: Natural endowment or socioeconomic product?” Cities 35: 62–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2013.06.011.
Chen, Z., B. Yu, C. Yang, et al. 2021. “An extended time series (2000-2018) of global NPP-VIIRS-like nighttime light data from a cross-sensor calibration.” Earth Sys. Sci. Data 13 (3): 889–906.
Cheng, Y., X. F. Huang, S. L. Zhang, and Z. Y. Liu. 2021. “Characteristics, economic effects, and policy responses of urban shrinkage in Yangtze river delta.” East China Econ. Manage. 35 (8): 21–28.
Du, Z. W., L. X. Jin, Y. Y. Ye, and H. O. Zhang. 2020. “Characteristics and influences of urban shrinkage in the exon-urbanization area of the pearl river delta, China.” Cities 103: 102767. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102767.
Elvidge, C. D., K. E. Baugh, E. A. Kihn, H. W. Kroehl, E. R. Davis, and C. W. Davis. 1997. “Relation between satellite observed visible-near infrared emissions, population, economic activity, and electric power consumption.” Int. J. Remote Sens. 18: 1373–1379. https://doi.org/10.1080/014311697218485.
Fol, S. 2012. “Urban shrinkage and socio-spatial disparities: Are the remedies worse than the disease?” Built Environ. 38 (2): 259–275. https://doi.org/10.2148/benv.38.2.259.
Fu, H. N. 2018. Study on the influence of China's economic system vicissitudes to economic growth. Jinan, China: Shandong University of Finance and Economics.
Gao, J. 2022. “Research on measurement and influencing factors of the level of shrinking cities in China—data analysis based on the sixth and seventh population censuses.” J. Fujian Bus. Univ. 1: 48–55.
Gao, X. R. 2015. “Research on establishing district(s) by dismissing county from the perspective of the transformation of government functions.” J. Gansu Adm. Inst. 3: 29–40.
Haase, D., A. Haase, and D. Rink. 2014. “Conceptualizing the nexus between urban shrinkage and ecosystem services.” Landscape Urban Plann. 132: 159–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2014.09.003.
Han, Z. X., K. J. Peng, J. N. Mi, and X. Chen. 2020. “A study on shrinkage city identification based on unsupervised learning method - A case study of nine prefecture-level cities in guangdong, Hong Kong and macao greater Bay area.” Public Adm. Rev. 13 (2): 76–93.
Hattori, K., K. Kaido, and M. Matsuyuki. 2017. “The development of urban shrinkage discourse and policy response in Japan.” Cities 69: 124–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2017.02.011.
He, Y. W., and F. L. Guo. 2017. “A brief analysis on the growth of local education expenditure and the division of counties and districts – based on the composite control method.” Contemp. Econ. 22: 122–126.
Hoffman, E., and M. L. Spitzer. 1982. “The coase theorem: Some experimental tests.” J. Law and Econ. 25: 73–98. https://doi.org/10.1086/467008.
Hu, Y., Z. Wang, and T. Deng. 2021. “Expansion in the shrinking cities: Does place-based policy help to curb urban shrinkage in China?” Cities 113: 103188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2021.103188.
Jiang, P., J. Zhou, and X. Cui. 2016. “Thoughts on tackling shrinking cities based on the studies of Chinese, Japanese and Korean cases.” Mod. Urban Res. 2: 2–7.
Jiang, Z., W. Zhai, X. Meng, and Y. Long. 2020. “Identifying shrinking cities with NPP-VIIRS nightlight data in China.” J. Urban Plann. Dev. 146: 04020034. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000598.
Khavarian-Garmsir, A. R., A. Pourahmad, H. Hataminejad, and R. Farhoodi. 2019. “Climate change and environmental degradation and the drivers of migration in the context of shrinking cities: A case study of khuzestan province, Iran.” Sustainable Cities Soc. 47: 101480. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101480.
Lai, X. L., N. L. Han, and P. J. Huang. 2021. “Population spatialization in hainan province based on NPP/VIRS nighttime light remote sensing data.” Bull. Sci. Technol. 37 (12): 24–29.
Lewis, R. 2006. “‘Voices of decline': The postwar fate of U.S. cities.” Urban Hist. Rev. Rev. D Histoire Urbaine 35 (1): 52–53. https://doi.org/10.7202/1015999ar.
Li, X., and X. X. Xu. 2015. “Analysis on the impact of the withdrawal of counties (cities) and the establishment of districts on urban economic growth in China.” Geogr. J. China 70 (8): 1202–1214.
Liang, Z. Y., and Y. Zhao. 2019. “Has the establishment of districts and counties improved the level of urban public services? – based on difference-in-difference evaluation of propensity score matching method.” Urban Environ. Res. 1: 49–59.
Liu, Y. B., J. Li, S. P. Xiao, and T. Su. 2020a. “How does urban shrinkage affect local public service provision?” Urban Dev. Res. 27 (7): 11–18.
Liu, Z., W. Qi, H. G. Qi, and S. H. Liu. 2020b. “The evolution of regional population declines and its driving factors at the county level in China from 1990 to 2015.” Geogr. Res. 39 (7): 1565–1579.
Liu, Z., H. Tang, G. S. Wu, and H. Q. Qiu. 2017. “The implementation effect of administrative division adjustment in the process of New urbanization - An investigation report on Chongqing's withdrawal from counties to districts.” Theor. Horiz. 6: 74–78.
Long, Y., K. Wu, and J. H. Wang. 2015. “Shrinking cities in China.” Mod. Urban Res. 9: 14–19.
Lu, F. G. 2021. “Does population loss harm the economic growth in northeast China—based on the measurement on population loss in northeast China.” Popul. Dev. 5: 98–120.
Lu, S. F., and S. X. Chen. 2016. “The value of governmental favoritism: Evidence from export performance of Chinese industrial enterprises.” J. Financ. Res. 7: 33–47.
Luo, Z. D., X. Wang, and L. Geng. 2015. “Administrative division adjustment in metropolitan areas of China: Stages and characteristics in the acceleration period of urbanization.” City Plann. Rev. 39 (2): 44–49.
Meng, M., Y. Yang, and Y. Shang. 2021a. “Did highways cause the urban polycentric spatial structure in the Shanghai metropolitan area?” J. Transp. Geogr. 92: 103022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2021.103022.
Meng, X., Z. Jiang, X. Wang, and Y. Long. 2021b. “Shrinking cities on the globe: Evidence from LandScan 2000–2019.” Environ. Plann. A: Econ. Space 53 (6): 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1177/0308518X211006118.
Meng, X. F., D. Y. Wang, and H. Li. 2020. “Analysis on driving forces of urban shrinkage in Old industrial cities of northeast China.” Mod. Urban Res. 3: 25–32.
Nelle, A., K. Großmann, D. Haase, S. Kabisch, D. Rink, and M. Wolff. 2017. “Urban shrinkage in Germany: An entangled web of conditions, debates, and policies.” Cities 69: 116–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2017.02.006.
Oates, W. E. 1969. “The effects of property taxes and local public spending on property values: An empirical study of Tax capitalization and the tiebout hypothesis.” J. Polit. Econ. 77 (6): 957–971. https://doi.org/10.1086/259584.
O’Brien, R. M. 2007. “A caution regarding rules of thumb for variance inflation factors.” Qual. Quant. 41 (5): 673–690. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-006-9018-6.
Reckien, D., and C. Martinez-Fernandez. 2011. “Why do cities shrink.” Eur. Plann. Stud. 19 (8): 1375–1397. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2011.593333.
Rodriguez-Pose, A., and U. Fratesi. 2004. “Between development and social policies: The impact of European structural funds in objective 1 regions.” Reg. Stud. 38 (1): 97–113. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343400310001632226.
Rodrik, D. 2007. One economics, many recipes: Globalization, institutions, and economic growth. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Tang, W., and Y. Wang. 2015. “Administrative zoning adjustments and population urbanization: Empirical evidence from the abolition of counties and the establishment of districts.” Econ. Res. 50 (9): 72–85.
Wang, J., Z. Yang, and X. Qian. 2020. “Driving factors of urban shrinkage: Examining the role of local industrial diversity.” Cities 99: 102646. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102646.
Wang, S. B., and X. L. Luo. 2022. “Population migration and its urbanization effect in underdeveloped areas: Gansu province as an example.” Urban Probl. 7: 4–11.
Wooldridge, J. M. 2010. Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. Cambridge, MA: MIT press.
Yang, M. Y. 2020. “Identification and causes of urban shrinkage in China based on nighttime lighting data.” Hebei J. 40 (2): 130–136.
Ye, Y. L., and C. Q. Wu. 2020. “Research on the identification and governance of the shrinking cities in China.” Study Pract. 5: 32–41.
Zhan, X. Y., and F. W. Zeng. 2021. “Did the administrative district adjustment improve the quality of economic development? — empirical evidence from the “abolition of counties and districts”.” Finance Trade Res. 32 (4): 70–82.
Zhang, S., C. X. Wang, J. Wang, S. Yao, F. Zhang, G. Yin, and X. Xu. 2020. “On the comprehensive measurement of urban shrink in China and its spatio-temporal differentiation.” China Popul. Resour. Environ. 30 (8): 72–82.
Zhang, X. L., Y. B. Liu, and C. C. Lv. 2016. “The background, identification of shrinking cities in China.” J. Southeast Univ. 18 (4): 132–139.
Zhang, Y., Y. Fu, X. Kong, and F. Zhang. 2019. “Prefecture-level city shrinkage on the regional dimension in China: Spatiotemporal change and internal relations.” Sustainable Cities Soc. 47: 101490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101490.
Zhang, Y. S., and L. Y. Gao. 2014. “Transaction cost changes in lnstitutional transition from a power perspective -New recognition about “The second north paradox”.” J. Northeast. Normal Univ. 3: 87–92.
Zhao, Q. L., W. N. Zhang, X. Y. Li, D. Li, and X. Song. 2020. “Spatiotemporal change of relative city shrinkage in Hubei province, 2006–2015.” Prog. Geogr. 39 (7): 1106–1116. https://doi.org/10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.07.004.
Zheng, S., Y. Fu, and H. Liu. 2009. “Demand for urban public transit: Evidence from Shanghai.” Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 43 (3): 308–317.
Zhu, J. H., T. Chen, K. Y. Wang, and Q. Wei. 2015. “Spatial pattern evolution and driving force analysis of administrative division in China since the reform and opening-up.” Geogr. Res. 34 (2): 247–258.
Zhu, M. N., C. J. Li, and N. Gong. 2017. “Geographical structure characteristics of FDI in seven regions of China in the past decade based on geographic zones.” J. Econ. Res. 23: 81–83.
Zhuang, R. L., G. Q. Li, L. W. Liang, and K. N. Mi. 2020. “Regional economic development and the abolition of counties and districts—A policy evaluation based on difference-in -difference method.” Geogr. Stud. 39 (6): 1386–1400.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 150 • Issue 4 • December 2024
Copyright
© 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 16, 2023
Accepted: May 13, 2024
Published online: Jul 30, 2024
Published in print: Dec 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Dec 30, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.