Risk-Based Vulnerability Analysis of Deteriorating Coastal Bridges under Hurricanes Considering Deep Uncertainty of Climatic and Socioeconomic Changes
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 6, Issue 3
Abstract
Corrosion and hurricanes pose substantial risk to coastal bridges. This risk is compounded by future climatic and socioeconomic changes due to the increasing temperature and humidity, rising sea level, changing frequency and intensity of hurricanes, and amplifying exposure and consequences to adverse events. These future conditions, however, involve deep uncertainty, making life-cycle risk assessment and management extremely difficult. To address this challenge, a novel approach is proposed to identify, among various factors related to climatic and socioeconomic changes, the vulnerability of coastal bridges that could lead to unacceptable life-cycle risk. The considered factors include temperature increase, sea level rise, hurricane frequency and intensity, and socioeconomic growth. The acceptable risk is derived from the threshold reliability index of existing structures and the associated failure consequences. The entire space of relevant factors is divided into acceptable and unacceptable categories using Latin hypercube sampling and life-cycle risk assessment. Advanced analysis tools, including feature scoring, scenario discovery, and dimensional stacking, are then used to pinpoint the driving factors of bridge vulnerability and their thresholds that are prone to create unacceptable risk. The proposed approach is applied to a representative bridge in a coastal setting. The implication of the approach on robust decision-making about climate adaptation is also discussed.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful for the financial support received from the US National Science Foundation (Grant CMMI 1537926) and the US DOT Region 3 University Transportation Center (Grant CIAM-UTC-REG6). The opinions and conclusions presented in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring organization.
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ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 6 • Issue 3 • September 2020
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©2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 22, 2020
Accepted: Mar 23, 2020
Published online: Jun 26, 2020
Published in print: Sep 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Nov 26, 2020
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