Developing Region-Specific Liquefaction Assessment Criterion for Bachu Region, China
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 6, Issue 3
Abstract
During the 2003 Bachu earthquake in China, the liquefaction phenomenon was widely observed. However, the standard penetration test–based method suggested in the national seismic design code in China significantly underestimates the liquefaction potential in Bachu. In this paper, a model bias factor is used to represent the effect of model uncertainty. The variability of the model bias factor associated with the national seismic design code method is investigated using 160 case histories collected from 7 regions in China. It is found that the statistics of the model bias factor vary from one region to another, indicating that the national seismic design code method is associated with different levels of accuracy when applied in different regions. Using the knowledge about the model bias factor learned from the seven regions as prior information, the distribution of the model bias factor is then updated with the region-specific data from Bachu based on Bayes’ theorem. The updated model bias factor is verified through liquefaction potential, and the expected number of liquefaction cases is consistent with the observed number of liquefaction cases. Base on the calibrated model bias factor in Bachu, a new liquefaction assessment criterion is then suggested for Bachu to achieve the target reliability level.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This research was substantially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41672276, 51538009), the Key Innovation Team Program of MOST of China (2016RA4059), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.
References
Andrus, R. D., K. H. Stokoe, and C. H. Juang. 2004. “Guide for shear-wave-based liquefaction potential evaluation.” Earthquake Spectra 20 (2): 285–308. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1715106.
Ang, A. H. S., and W. H. Tang. 2007. Probability concepts in engineering planning and design: Emphasis on application to civil and environmental engineering. New York: Wiley.
AQSIQ and SAC (General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of the People’s Republic of China and Standardization Administration of the People’s Republic of China). 2008. The Chinese seismic intensity scale (GB/T17742-2008). [In Chinese.] Beijing: Standards Press of China.
ASTM. 2011. Test method for penetration test (SPT) and split-barrel sampling of soils. West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM.
Baecher, G. R., and R. Rackwitz. 1982. “Factors of safety and pile load tests.” Int. J. Numer. Anal. Methods Geomech. 6 (4): 409–424. https://doi.org/10.1002/nag.1610060404.
Betancourt, M. 2017. “A conceptual introduction to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.” Preprint, submitted January 10, 2017. http://arxiv.org/abs/1701.02434.
Bong, T., and A. W. Stuedlein. 2018. “Effect of cone penetration conditioning on random field model parameters and impact of spatial variability on liquefaction-induced differential settlements.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 144 (5): 04018018. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0001863.
Boulanger, R. W., and I. M. Idriss. 2016. “CPT-based liquefaction triggering procedure.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 142 (2): 04015065. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0001388.
Boulanger, R. W., D. W. Wilson, and I. M. Idriss. 2012. “Examination and reevaluation of SPT-based liquefaction triggering case histories.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 138 (8): 898–909. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000668.
Breslow, N. E., and D. G. Clayton. 1993. “Approximate inference in generalized linear mixed models.” J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 88 (421): 9–25. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1993.10594284.
Brown, E. R., and J. G. Ibrahim. 2003. “A Bayesian semiparametric joint hierarchical model for longitudinal and survival data.” Biometrics 59 (2): 221–228. https://doi.org/10.1111/1541-0420.00028.
Cao, Z. J., Y. Wang, and D. Q. Li. 2016. “Site-specific characterization of soil properties using multiple measurements from different test procedures at different locations—A Bayesian sequential updating approach.” Eng. Geol. 211 (Aug): 150–161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2016.06.021.
CEPPEA (China Eletric Power Planning & Engineering Association). 2015. Comparative study on Chinese power design standards and international standards and foreign standards. [In Chinese.] Beijing: CEPPEA.
Cetin, K. O., A. Der Kiureghian, and R. B. Seed. 2002. “Probabilistic models for the initiation of seismic soil liquefaction.” Struct. Saf. 24 (1): 67–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-4730(02)00036-X.
Cetin, K. O., R. B. Seed, R. E. Kayen, R. E. S. Moss, H. T. Bilge, M. Ilgac, and K. Chowdhury. 2018a. “Examination of differences between three SPT-based seismic soil liquefaction triggering relationships.” Soil Dyn. Earthquake Eng. 113 (Oct): 75–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2018.03.013.
Cetin, K. O., R. B. Seed, R. E. Kayen, R. E. S. Moss, H. T. Bilge, M. Ilgac, and K. Chowdhury. 2018b. “SPT-based probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction triggering hazard.” Soil Dyn. Earthquake Eng. 115 (Dec): 698–709. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2018.09.012.
Chen, G., M. Kong, X. Li, X. Chang, and G. Zhou. 2015. “Deterministic and probabilistic triggering correlations for assessment of seismic soil liquefaction at nuclear power plant.” [In Chinese.] Rock Soil Mech. 36 (1): 9–27. https://doi.org/10.16285/j.rsm.2015.01.002.
Ching, J., H. Liao, and C. Sue. 2008. “Calibration of reliability-based resistance factors for flush drilled soil anchors in Taipei basin.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 134 (9): 1348–1363. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2008)134:9(1348).
Ching, J., and K. K. Phoon. 2019. “Constructing site-specific multivariate probability distribution model using Bayesian machine learning.” J. Eng. Mech. 145 (1): 04018126. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)EM.1943-7889.0001537.
Ching, J., and J. S. Wang. 2016. “Application of the transitional Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to probabilistic site characterization.” Eng. Geol. 203 (Mar): 151–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.10.015.
Das, R., H. R. Wason, and M. L. Sharma. 2011. “Global regression relations for conversion of surface wave and body wave magnitudes to moment magnitude.” Nat. Hazards 59 (2): 801–810. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9796-6.
Dong, L., W. Hu, Z. Cao, and X. Yuan. 2010. “Comparative analysis of soil liquefaction macro-phenomena in Bachu earthquake.” [In Chinese.] Earthquake Eng. Eng. Vib. 30 (6): 179–187. https://doi.org/10.13197/j.eeev.2010.06.008.
Facciorusso, J., C. Madiai, and G. Vannucchi. 2015. “CPT-based liquefaction case history from the 2012 Emilia earthquake in Italy.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 141 (12): 05015002. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0001349.
Farrar, J. A. 1991. Field energy measurements of standard penetration testing. Denver: Univ. of Colorado Denver.
Ge, Y., and J. Zhang. 2018. “Observations on model uncertainty of Robertson-Wride model for liquefaction potential evaluation.” In Proc., GeoShanghai 2018 Int. Conf.: Advances in Soil Dynamics and Foundation Engineering, 130–137. Singapore: Springer.
Gelman, A., H. S. Stern, J. B. Carlin, D. B. Dunson, A. Vehtari, and D. B. Rubin. 2013. Bayesian data analysis. London: Chapman and Hall/CRC.
Gilbert, R. 1999. First-order, second-moment Bayesian method for data analysis in decision making. Austin, TX: Univ. of Texas at Austin.
Hoffman, M. D., and A. Gelman. 2014. “The No-U-Turn sampler: Adaptively setting path lengths in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.” J. Mach. Learn. Res. 15 (1): 1593–1623.
Hu, J., and H. Liu. 2019. “Bayesian network models for probabilistic evaluation of earthquake-induced liquefaction based on CPT and Vs databases.” Eng. Geol. 254 (May): 76–88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2019.04.003.
Huang, H. W., J. Zhang, and L. M. Zhang. 2012. “Bayesian network for characterizing model uncertainty of liquefaction potential evaluation models.” KSCE J. Civ. Eng. 16 (5): 714–722. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-012-1367-1.
Huang, S. M. 1982. “Experience on a standard penetration test.” In Proc., 2nd European Symp. on Penetration Test, 61–66, Rotterdam: A.A. Balkema.
Huang, Z., D. Zhang, and H. Huang. 2017. “Assessing the performance of shield tunnels due to corrosion using Bayesian MCMC.” In Proc., Geo-Risk 2017, edited by J. S. Huang, G. A. Fenton, L. M. Zhang, and D. V. Griffiths, 172–183. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Juang, C. H., S. Khoshnevisan, and J. Zhang. 2015. “Maximum likelihood principle and its application in soil liquefaction assessment.” In Risk and reliability in geotechnical engineering, edited by K. K. Phoon and J. Ching. New York: CRC Press.
Juang, C. H., S. H. Yang, H. Yuan, and E. H. Khor. 2004. “Characterization of the uncertainty of the Robertson and Wride model for liquefaction potential evaluation.” Soil Dyn. Earthquake Eng. 24 (9–10): 771–780. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2004.06.002.
Kay, J. N. 1976. “Safety factor evaluation for single piles in sand.” J. Geotech. Eng. Div. 102 (10): 1093–1108.
Kayen, R., R. E. S. Moss, E. M. Thompson, R. B. Seed, K. O. Cetin, A. D. Kiureghian, Y. Tanaka, and K. Tokimatsu. 2013. “Shear-wave velocity–based probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction potential.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 139 (3): 407–419. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000743.
Kong, M. 2013. Study on assessments of seismic soil liquefaction potential for nuclear power plant site. [In Chinese.] Nanjing, China: Nanjing Univ. of Technology.
Li, Z., X. Yuan, Z. Cao, R. Sun, L. Dong, and J. Shi. 2012. “A new formula for judging liquefaction of sandy soil based on the survey of Bachu earthquake in Xinjiang.” [In Chinese.] Chin. J. Geotech. Eng. 34 (3): 483–489.
Lopez-Caballero, F., and C. Khalil. 2018. “Vulnerability assessment for earthquake liquefaction–induced settlements of an embankment using Gaussian processes.” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 4 (2): 04018010. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0000957.
Lynch, S. M. 2007. Introduction to applied Bayesian statistics and estimation for social scientists. New York: Springer.
Manski, C. F., and S. R. Lerman. 1977. “The estimation of choice probabilities from choice-based samples.” Econometrica 45 (8): 1977–1988. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914121.
MOHURD (Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development). 2009. Code for investigation of geotechnical engineering (GB 50021-2001). [In Chinese.] Beijing: China Architecture & Building Press.
MOHURD (Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development). 2016. Code for seismic design of buildings (GB 50011-2010). [In Chinese.] Beijing: China Architecture & Building Press.
Moss, R. E., R. B. Seed, R. E. Kayen, J. P. Stewart, A. Der Kiureghian, and K. O. Cetin. 2006. “CPT-based probabilistic and deterministic assessment of in situ seismic soil liquefaction potential.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 132 (8): 1032–1051. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2006)132:8(1032).
Mu, H. -Q., and K.-V. Yuen. 2019. “Bayesian learning-based data analysis of uniaxial compressive strength of rock: Relevance feature selection and prediction reliability assessment.” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 6 (1): 04019018. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0001030.
Neal, R. M. 2011. “MCMC using Hamiltonian dynamics.” In Handbook of Markov chain Monte Carlo, edited by S. Brooks, A. Gelman, G. Jones, and X. L. Meng. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall/CRC.
Ornthammarath, T., J. Douglas, R. Sigbjörnsson, and C. G. Lai. 2010. “Assessment of strong ground motion variability in Iceland.” In Proc., 14th European Conf. on Earthquake Engineering. New York: Curran Associates.
Robertson, P. K. 2009. “Performance based earthquake design using the CPT.” In Proc., IS-Tokyo: Performance-Based Design in Earthquake Geotechnical Engineering, 3–20. London: Taylor & Francis Group.
Robertson, P. K., and C. E. Wride. 1998. “Evaluating cyclic liquefaction potential using the cone penetration test.” Can. Geotech. J. 35 (3): 442–459. https://doi.org/10.1139/t98-017.
Seed, H. B., I. M. Idriss, and I. Arango. 1983. “Evaluation of liquefaction potential using field performance data.” J. Geotech. Eng. 109 (3): 458–482. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9410(1983)109:3(458).
Seed, H. B., K. Tokimatsu, L. F. Harder, and R. M. Chung. 1985. “Influence of SPT procedures in soil liquefaction resistance evaluations.” J. Geotech. Eng. 111 (12): 1425–1445. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9410(1985)111:12(1425).
Skempton, A. W. 1986. “Standard penetration test procedures and the effects in sands of overburden pressure, relative density, particle size, ageing and overconsolidation.” Géotechnique 36 (3): 425–447. https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.1986.36.3.425.
Song, L., C. Miao, Y. Yuan, W. Hu, J. Shen, L. Yin, Q. Tian, and L. Tang. 2003. “Bachu-Jiashi, Xinjiang, magnitude 6.7 earthquake disaster losses evaluation.” [In Chinese.] Inland Earthquake 17 (2): 157–165. https://doi.org/10.16256/j.issn.1001-8956.2003.02.011.
Sorensen, T., and S. Vasishth. 2015. “Bayesian linear mixed models using Stan: A tutorial for psychologists, linguists, and cognitive scientists.” Preprint, Submitted June 20, 2015. http://arxiv.org/abs/1506.06201.
Woltman, H., A. Feldstain, J. C. MacKay, and M. Rocchi. 2012. “An introduction to hierarchical linear modeling.” Tutorials Quant. Methods Psychol. 8 (1): 52–69. https://doi.org/10.20982/tqmp.08.1.p052.
Wotherspoon, L. M., R. P. Orense, R. A. Green, B. A. Bradley, B. R. Cox, and C. M. Wood. 2015. “Assessment of liquefaction evaluation procedures and severity index frameworks at Christchurch strong motion stations.” Soil Dyn. Earthquake Eng. 79 (Dec): 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2015.03.022.
Xie, J. 1984. “Several opinions on modifying the liquefaction discriminant of sand soil in seismic code.” [In Chinese.] Earthquake Eng. Eng. Dyn. 4 (2): 95–126. https://doi.org/10.13197/j.eeev.1984.02.003.
Yoshida, I., Y. Tasaki, Y. Otake, and S. Wu. 2018. “Optimal sampling placement in a Gaussian random field based on value of information.” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 4 (3): 04018018. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0000970.
Youd, T. L., and I. M. Idriss. 2001. “Liquefaction resistance of soils: Summary report from the 1996 NCEER and 1998 NCEER/NSF workshops on evaluation of liquefaction resistance of soils.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 127 (4): 297–313. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2001)127:4(297).
Yuen, K. V., J. L. Beck, and S. K. Au. 2004. “Structural damage detection and assessment by adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation.” Struct. Control Health Monit. 11 (4): 327–347. https://doi.org/10.1002/stc.47.
Zhang, J., C. H. Juang, J. R. Martin, and H. W. Huang. 2016. “Inter-region variability of Robertson and Wride method for liquefaction hazard analysis.” Eng. Geol. 203 (Mar): 191–203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.12.024.
Zhang, J., L. M. Zhang, and H. W. Huang. 2013. “Evaluation of generalized linear models for soil liquefaction probability prediction.” Environ. Earth Sci. 68 (7): 1925–1933. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-012-1880-z.
Zhang, L. 2004. “Reliability verification using proof pile load tests.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 130 (11): 1203–1213. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2004)130:11(1203).
Zhang, Y. F., R. Wang, J. M. Zhang, and J. H. Zhang. 2018. “Evaluation of SPT-based liquefaction assessment methods in china.” In Proc., GeoShanghai 2018 Int. Conf.: Advances in Soil Dynamics and Foundation Engineering, 349–357. Singapore: Springer.
Zhao, X., and G. Cai. 2015. “SPT-CPT correlation and its application for liquefaction evaluation in China.” Mar. Georesour. Geotechnol. 33 (3): 272–281. https://doi.org/10.1080/1064119X.2013.872740.
Zhou, Y. G., and Y. M. Chen. 2007. “Laboratory investigation on assessing liquefaction resistance of sandy soils by shear wave velocity.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 133 (8): 959–972. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2007)133:8(959).
Zhu, J., D. Daley, L. G. Baise, E. M. Thompson, D. J. Wald, and K. L. Knudsen. 2015. “A geospatial liquefaction model for rapid response and loss estimation.” Earthquake Spectra 31 (3): 1813–1837. https://doi.org/10.1193/121912EQS353M.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 6 • Issue 3 • September 2020
Copyright
©2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 6, 2019
Accepted: Mar 2, 2020
Published online: Jun 4, 2020
Published in print: Sep 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Nov 4, 2020
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.