Analyzing Impact on Critical Infrastructure Using Input-Output Interdependency Model: Case Studies
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 3, Issue 4
Abstract
The economic input-output interdependency model is a quick decision tool for stakeholders of critical infrastructure to understand the economic impact of a disruptive event. To demonstrate its applications, two real case studies (Pulau Bukom refinery fire in Singapore in 2011 and Tohoku earthquake in Japan in 2011) are presented in the paper. The paper will describe how the model is used to compute the effects on other economic sectors. It also seeks to compare and analyze the computed cascading effects. Understanding the severity and extent of the disruptive event is very important and the input-output interdependency model serves as a quick and cost-effective decision deployment tool for use by relevant stakeholders.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Alan, T. M., and Tony, H. G. (2012). “Critical infrastructure protection: The vulnerability conundrum.” Telematics Inf., 29(1), 56–65.
Burton, M. L., and Hicks, M. J. (2005). “Hurricane Katrina: Preliminary estimates of commercial and public sector damages.” Marshall Univ., Center for Business and Economic Research, Huntington, VA.
Cabinet Office of Japan. (2011). Road to recovery, National policy unit, Tokyo.
Chua, A. (2012). “Pulau Bukom fire (2011)”. ⟨http://eresources.nlb.gov.sg/infopedia/articles/SIP_1868_2012-02-02⟩ (Nov. 6, 2015).
Contact Singapore. (2011). Careers@Singapore oil and gas, Singapore Economic Development Board and Ministry of Manpower, Singapore.
Daniell, J. E., Vervaeck, A., and Wenzel, F. (2011). “A timeline of the socio-economic effects of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake with emphasis on the development of a new worldwide rapid earthquake loss estimation procedure.” Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2011 Conf., Barossa Valley, SA, Australia.
Dudenhoeffer, D. D., Permann, M. R., and Manic, M. (2006). “CIMS: A framework for infrastructure interdependency modeling and analysis.” Proc., 38th Conf. on Winter Simulation, IEEE, Piscataway, NJ, 478–485.
Economist. (2005). “The shaming of America.” ⟨http://www.economist.com/node/4370617⟩ (Nov. 6, 2015).
Ernst and Young. (2002). National lodging forecast, Real Estate Advisory Group, New York.
Federal Aviation Administration. (2003). Terminal area forecast summary 2001-2003, Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, Washington, DC.
Haimes, Y., Horowitz, B., Lambert, J., Santos, J., Lian, C., and Crowther, K. (2005). “Inoperability input-output model for interdependent infrastructure sectors. I: Theory and methodology.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 67–79.
Infrastructure Security Partnership. (2006). Regional disaster resilience: A guide for developing an action plan, ASCE, Reston, VA.
Kajitani, Y., Chang, S. E., and Tatano, H. (2013). “Economic impacts of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and tsunami.” Earthquake Spectra, 29(S1), S457–S478.
Kizhakkedath, A., Tai, K., Sim, M. S., Tiong, R. L. K., and Lin, J. (2013). “An agent-based modeling and evolutionary optimization approach for vulnerability analysis of critical infrastructure networks.” AsiaSim 2013—Proc., 13th Int. Conf. on Systems Simulation, Vol. 402, Springer, Singapore, 176–187.
Lam, C. Y., Lin, J., Sim, M. S., and Tai, K. (2013). “Identifying vulnerabilities in critical infrastructures by network analysis.” Int. J. Crit. Infrastruct., 9(3), 190–210.
Leontief, W. (1986). Input-output economics, 2nd Ed., Oxford University Press, New York.
Lin, J., Tai, K., Tiong, R. L. K., and Sim, M. S. (2016a). “A general framework for critical infrastructure interdependencies modeling using economic input-output model and network analysis.” CSD&M Asia 2016—2nd Asia-Pacific Conf. on Complex Systems Design & Management, Springer, Berlin.
Lin, J., Tai, K., Tiong, R. L. K., and Sim, M. S. (2016b). “Vulnerability analysis for multiple critical infrastructure sectors using interdependencies modeling and network analysis.” APSSRA 2016—6th Asian-Pacific Symp. on Structural Reliability and Its Applications, Tongji Press, China.
LTA (Land Transport Authority) and SMRT. (2016). Joint news release by the Land Transport Authority (LTA) & SMRT—Circle line signalling problems caused by intermittent failure of signalling hardware on train, Singapore.
METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry). (2005). Classification of the 2005 updated input-output table, Tokyo.
METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry). (2014). The 2011 updated input-output tables, Research and Statistics Dept., Minister’s Secretariat, Tokyo.
Miller, R. E., and Blair, P. D. (2009). Input-output analysis: Foundations and extensions, Cambridge University Press, New York.
Ng, G. (2011). “Bukom fire won’t lead to higher electricity tariffs.” ⟨http://www.asiaone.com/print/News/AsiaOne%2BNews/Singapore/Story/A1Story20111021-306215.html⟩ (Oct. 21, 2011).
North, M. J. (2001). “Multi-agent social and organizational modeling of electric power and natural gas markets.” Comput. Math. Organiz. Theory, 7(4), 331–337.
Pederson, P., Dudenhoeffer, D., Hartley, S., and Permann, M. (2006). Critical infrastructure interdependency modeling: A survey of US and international research, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID.
Qiao, J., Jeong, D., Lawkey, M., Richard, J.-P. P., Abraham, D. M., and Yih, Y. (2007). “Allocating security resources to a water supply network.” IIE Trans. Spec. Issue Homeland Secur., 39(1), 95–109.
Rinaldi, S. M., Peerenboom, J. P., and Kelly, T. K. (2001). “Identifying understanding and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies.” IEEE Control Syst. Mag., 21(6), 11–25.
Santos, J. R. (2006). “Inoperability input-output modeling of disruptions to interdependent economic systems.” Syst. Eng., 9(1), 20–34.
Santos, J. R., and Haimes, Y. Y. (2004). “Modeling the demand reduction input-output (I-O) inoperability due to terrorism of interconnected infrastructures.” Risk Anal., 24(6), 1437–1451.
Singapore Department of Statistics. (2005). “Singapore standard industrial classification.” Singapore.
Singapore Department of Statistics. (2010). Singapore input-output tables 2005, National Accounts, Singapore.
Singapore Department of Statistics. (2016). “M013751—Gross domestic product at current market prices, by industry, quarterly.” National Accounts, Singapore.
St. Onge, J., and Epstein, V. (2006). “Ex-chief says FEMA readiness even worse.” ⟨http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2006/04/01/ex_chief_says_fema_readiness_even_worse/⟩ (Nov. 6, 2015).
Tai, K., Kizhakkedath, A., Lin, J., Tiong, R. L. K., and Sim, M. S. (2013). “Identifying extreme risks in critical infrastructure interdependencies.” Proc., Int. Symp. of Next Generation Infrastructure, P. Campbell and P. Perez, eds., SMART Infrastructure Facility, Univ. of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
Timmer, M. P., et al. (2012). “The world input-output database (WIOD): Contents, sources and methods.”, Institute for International and Development Economics, Brighton, U.K.
Tiong, R., and Anderson, J. A. (2003). “Public-private partnership risk assessment and management process: The Asian dimension.” Public-private partnerships: Managing risks and opportunities, A. Akintoye, M. Beck, and C. Hardcastle, eds., Blackwell Science Ltd., Oxford, U.K.
United Nations Statistics Division, European Commission, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, International Monetary Fund, and World Bank Group. (2009). System of national accounts 2008, New York.
Wallace, W. A., Mendonça, D., Lee, E., Mitchell, J., and Chow, J. (2003). “Managing disruptions to critical interdependent infrastructures in the context of the 2001 world trade center attack.” Ph.D. dissertation, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY.
Yaw, Y. C. (2011). Update 1—Shell restarts final crude unit at Singapore refinery, Reuters, London.
Zhang, P., and Peeta, S. (2011). “A generalized modeling framework to analyze interdependencies among infrastructure systems.” Trans. Res. Part B Methodol., 45(3), 553–579.
Zimmerman, R. (2001). “Social implications of infrastructure network interactions.” J. Urban Technol., 8(3), 97–119.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 3 • Issue 4 • December 2017
Copyright
©2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 1, 2016
Accepted: Mar 24, 2017
Published online: Jun 29, 2017
Discussion open until: Nov 29, 2017
Published in print: Dec 1, 2017
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.