Introduction of the Concept of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Evaluating the Borehole Stability in Horizontal Directional Drilling
Publication: Pipelines 2024
ABSTRACT
Annular pressure analysis that determines the likelihood of hydraulic fracture occurrence is critically important for evaluating the feasibility of horizontal directional drilling (HDD). The traditional method of annular pressure analysis in HDD makes insightful comparisons between minimum required annular pressure, Pmin, and maximum allowable annular pressure, Pmax, along the bore path. However, such a method seems deterministic rather than considering the potential variability in estimates of annular pressure (both Pmin and Pmax) due to the uncertainties within the parameters and models used. This paper proposes a concept of probabilistic risk assessment that allows incorporating such uncertainties in the annular pressure analysis in HDD. For a better understanding, the newly proposed concept of probabilistic annular pressure analysis in HDD is discussed in relation to the probabilistic method used in other geotechnical engineering applications. Lastly, information required for developing risk criteria for evaluating the risk of hydraulic fracture in HDD is presented.
Get full access to this chapter
View all available purchase options and get full access to this chapter.
REFERENCES
Baecher, G. B., and Christian, J. T. (2003). Reliability and Statistics in Geotechnical Engineering. John Wiley & Sons Inc., Chichester, England.
Baumert, M. E., Allouche, E. N., and Moore, I. D. (2005). “Drilling Fluid Considerations in Design of Engineered Horizontal Directional Drilling Installations.” International Journal of Geomechanics, 5(4), 339–349.
Bayat, A., and Osbak, M. (2019). “Reducing Risk: Undervalued Information in Underground Construction.” Paper presented at the NASTT 2019 No-Dig North, 28-30 October, 2019, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
Bennett, D., and Wallin, K. (2008). “Step by Step Evaluation of Hydrofracture Risks for Horizontal Directional Drilling Projects.” Paper presented at the ASCE 2008 International Pipelines Conference, 22-27 July, 2008, Atlanta, Georgia.
Castedo, H., Murphy, J., Liang, P., Qazi, M., and Miles, T. (2022). “North American Record NPS 12 Intersect HDD with 5 Horizontal Curves.” Paper presented at the NASTT 2022 No-Dig show, 10-14 April, 2022, Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Deng, S., Kang, C., Bayat, A., Kuru, E., Osbak, M., Barr, K., and Trovato, C. (2020). “Rheological Properties of Clay-Based Drilling Fluids and Evaluation of Their Hole-Cleaning Performances in Horizontal Directional Drilling.” Journal of Pipeline Systems Engineering and Practice, 11(3), 04020031.
El-Ramly, H. M. F. (2002). Probabilistic Analyses of Landslide Hazards and Risks: Bridging Theory and Practice. PhD Thesis, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Gierczak, M. (2014). “The Qualitative Risk Assessment of MINI, MIDI and MAXI Horizontal Directional Drilling Projects.” Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 44, 148–156.
Gross, B. A. (2019). “What’s New at the Geo-Institute?” Geostrata, 23(4), 2.
Ho, K., Leroi, E., and Roberds, B. (2000). “Quantitative Risk Assessment: Application, Myths and Future Direction.” Paper presented at the ISRM International Symposium, November, 2000, Melbourne, Australia.
Kouchesfehani, Z. K., Tabesh, A., and Najafi, M. (2017). “Risk Identification for Pipeline Installation by Horizontal Directional Drilling.” Paper presented at the International Congress on Underground Infrastructure, WaterManagement and Trenchless Technology, 7-8 September, 2017, Istanbul, Turkey.
Luger, H. J., and Hergarden, H. J. A. M. (1988). “Directional Drilling in Soft Soil, Influence of Mud Pressures.” Paper presented at the International Society of Trenchless Technology (ISTT) 1988 No-Dig Conference, 16–19 October, 1988, Washington, D.C.
Ma, B., Najafi, M., Shen, H., and Wu, L. (2010). “Risk Evaluation for Maxi Horizontal Directional Drilling Crossing Projects.” Journal of Pipeline Systems Engineering and Practice, 1(2), 91–97.
Moganti, P. Y. (2016). Safety Risk Investigation of Horizontal Directional Drilling Projects. MSc Thesis, Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina.
Morgenstern, N. R. (1995). “Managing Risk in Geotechnical Engineering: The Third Casagrande Lecture.” Paper presented at the 10th Pan American Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering, October 29 – November 3, 1995, Guadalajara, Mexico.
Murray, C. D., Osbak, M., and Bayat, A. (2013). “Horizontal Directional Drilling - Construction Risk Management Strategies.” Paper presented at the ASCE Pipelines 2013 Conference, 23–26 June, 2013, Fort Worth, Texas.
North American Society for Trenchless Technology. (2017). NASTT’s Horizontal Directional Drilling (HDD) Good Practices Guidelines (4 ed.). NASTT., Cleveland, Ohio.
Osbak, M., Bayat, A., and Murray, C. D. (2012). “The Impact of Risk in Horizontal Directional Drilling.” Paper presented at the 2012 9th International Pipeline Conference (IPC2012), 24–28 September, 2012, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
Osbak, M., Murray, C. D., and Bayat, A. (2012). “The Economics of Risk Absorption and Risk Transfer Strategies in Horizontal Directional Drilling.” Paper presented at the North American Society for Trenchless Technology (NASTT) 2012 No-Dig Conference, 3–7 March, 2012, Sacramento, California.
Oweis, I. S., and Setya, R. (2022). “Directional Drilling in Glacial Deposits in Warren County, New Jersey.” Journal of Pipeline Systems Engineering and Practice, 13(1), 05021010.
Perkins, A., Bateman, S., Ayala, E., Magnone, L., Van Dyke, T., Camp, C., and Cohen, T. (2016) “Preemptive Actions Lead to the Successful Horizontal Directional Drill (HDD) Crossing of a Congested Corridor.” Paper presented at the North American Society for Trenchless Technology (NASTT) 2016 No-Dig Conference, 20–24 March, 2016, Dallas, Texas.
Van Brussell, G. G., and Hergarden, H. J. A. M. (1997). “Construction Productivity Advancement Research (CPAR) program: Installation of Pipelines beneath Levees Using Horizontal Directional Drilling (SO-59407-701/2).” Department Foundations and Underground Engineering, Delft Geotechnics, Delft, Netherlands.
Vos, B. (2019). “Wapiti River Three-Peat Parallel HDD Crossing.” Paper presented at the North American Society for Trenchless Technology (NASTT) 2019 No-Dig North Conference, 28–30 October, 2019, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
Willoughby, D. A. (2005). Horizontal Directional Drilling: Utility and Pipeline Applications. The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
Woodroffe, N. J., and Ariaratnam, S. T. (2008). “Cost and Risk Evaluation for Horizontal Directional Drilling versus Open Cut in an Urban Environment.” Practice periodical on structural design and construction, 13(2), 85–92.
Xia, H., and Moore, I. D. (2006). “Estimation of maximum mud pressure in purely cohesive material during directional drilling.” Geomechanics and Geoengineering: An International Journal, 1(1), 3–11.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Pipelines 2024
Pages: 331 - 341
History
Published online: Aug 30, 2024
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.