Willingness to Pay in the Autonomous Vehicle Age

The advent of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is likely to generate marked changes in demand for user fee assets, with consequences for planning, developing, and financing these transportation investments. In the particular case of express lanes, there is limited understanding for how key assumptions to traffic and revenue forecasts, the main tool to value these assets, will change under an AV scenario. This paper discusses original research aimed at understanding how willingness to pay, a key input to express lanes asset valuations, could change with the advent of autonomous vehicles. Three stated preference surveys were developed and administered independently, targeting users of the 91 Express Lanes in California, the I-95/I-495 express lanes in Virginia, and the Katy Managed Lanes in Texas. Values of time for two scenarios—travel in a traditional vehicle and travel in an AV—were estimated using the survey data through a binomial logit model. The results indicate that on average, for all geographies, trip purposes, and ages, willingness to pay is lower for travelers in an AV compared to driving a traditional vehicle. Therefore, while travelers still value travel time savings all else equal, they value them less—around 30% less—in an AV scenario. The research also provides insights into specific travel market segments. Survey responses indicate that travel time reliability remains a key consideration regardless of total trip time. This research provides an important indication of how one aspect of travel demand on express lanes assets could be affected by AV adoption.