Development of a Continuous Bathymetric/Topographic Unstructured Coastal Flooding Model to Study Sea Level Rise in North Carolina

A model to examine the impacts of long term sea level rise (SLR) is being implemented in the coastal North Carolina ecosystem. This area is particularly vulnerable to SLR, as a fragile system of barrier islands protects an extensive but sensitive estuarine system. The primary impact of SLR is to the hydrodynamic response of the system: circulation, tidal amplitude, and inundation patterns due to tides, winds, and storms can all change in response to rising sea level. Rates of SLR in the region are just under 3 mm/year and are increasing, and inundation is tied to inlet conveyance which can be modified by SLR. A Coastal Flooding Model (CFM) has been developed for the region by combining a finite element hydrodynamic model with a continuous bathymetric and topographic elevation dataset. The CFM domain extends from 90 km offshore of the Outer Banks to the 15 m topographic contour and from northern Currituck Sound south to the New River. The CFM provides high resolution of coastal features down to 20 m. High resolution topographic elevation data relative to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88) was combined with bathymetric sounding data relative to local tidal datums by transforming the tidal datums to NAVD 88 with the VDatum vertical transformation tool developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). The VDatum tool allows for transformation among nearly 30 different tidal, orthometric, and ellipsoidal vertical datums. A 6 m horizontal resolution continuous bathymetric/topographic (bathy/topo) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was constructed for accurate modeling of inundation. The CFM is relative to the NAVD 88 vertical datum and was populated with DEM elevations where available and other topographic and bathymetric data relative to NAVD 88 elsewhere to create a continuous bathy/topo elevation field. A two-dimensional barotropic model is used to simulate the tidal response in the CFM to study changes due to SLR and will also be used to model regional synoptic wind events and hurricane storm surge propagation with SLR. Accurate simulation of inundation patterns is accomplished by high localized resolution in the coastal zone, continuous bathy/topo data, and an accurate wetting/drying algorithm. The CFM is validated against observational data before modification of initial and boundary water levels to represent eustatic SLR. The RMS error at tidal stations was calculated for the primary constituent amplitudes and phases. The average of these RMS amplitude errors is 7.8 x 10^–3 m and the average of the RMS phase errors is 6.57°. Shoreline migration can be dynamically computed from the CFM simulation output as a function of SLR. Finally, the CFM will be coupled to submodels that characterize the ecological impact of SLR.