System Dynamics Approach for Evaluating the Interconnection Performance of Cross-Border Transport Infrastructure
Publication: Journal of Management in Engineering
Volume 38, Issue 3
Abstract
Cross-border transport infrastructure (CTI) has been regarded as critical for boosting and supporting the coordinated development of regions. However, so far, very limited studies have examined the interconnection performance of CTI with particular emphasis on the overall dynamics of the complicated CTI system and how the dynamic interactions of management measures would affect the system performance as a whole. Therefore, this paper takes on a dynamic and holistic view to investigate how the overall interconnection performance of CTI is affected by the dynamic interactions of management measures. First, four broad indicators for measuring CTI interconnection performance, transportation time reliability, transportation easy accessibility, transportation safety, and transportation operating service quality were identified and analyzed. Second, the causal interactions among main variables were analyzed through causal-loop diagrams. Third, a system dynamics (SD) approach was employed to develop a model for quantifying the effects of variables. Finally, the model was verified and applied with data of the Hong Kong–Zhuhai–Macao Bridge; policy analysis was conducted as well. The findings prove that the dynamic interactions among various management measures are critical in evaluating the interconnection performance of CTI. In particular, impacts of certain combination sets of policies would be larger when management measures are collectively considered. The proposed model can be used as a basis for simulating various management measures, so that the optimum policy combinations can be explored in advance to improve the interconnection performance of CTI.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. The types of data that are available include HZMB project data and SD model parameters.
Acknowledgments
The first author was supported by the Guangdong Philosophy and Social Science Program (Grant No. GD20SQ06), the Guangzhou Philosophy and Social Science Program in 2019 (Grant No. 2019GZYB86), and National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 18ZDA043); the second author was supported by the NSFC (Grant No. 71972018) and the Fundamental Research Fund for the Central Universities (Grant No. 2021CDJSKJC02). The authors would like to show their appreciation for the constructive comments provided by the editors and the three reviewers.
References
Arvis, J. F., L. Ojala, C. Wiederer, B. Shepherd, A. Raj, K. Dairabayeva, and T. Kiiski. 2018. Connecting to compete 2018: Trade logistics in the global economy. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Calatayud, A., J. Mangan, and R. Palacin. 2017. “Connectivity to international markets: A multi-layered network approach.” J. Transp. Geogr. 61 (May): 61–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2017.04.006.
Cao, X., S. Ouyang, W. Yang, Y. Luo, B. Li, and D. Liu. 2019. “Transport accessibility and spatial connections of cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area.” Chin. Geogr. Sci. 29 (5): 820–833. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-019-1034-2.
Castanho, R., L. Loures, J. Fernández, and L. Pozo. 2018. “Identifying critical factors for success in cross border cooperation (CBC) development projects.” Habitat Int. 72 (Feb): 92–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2016.10.004.
Castanho, R. A., A. Vulevic, J. C. Fernández, L. Fernández-Pozo, J. M. N. Gómez, and L. C. Loures. 2017. “Accessibility and connectivity—Movement between cities, as a critical factor to achieve success on cross-border cooperation (CBC) projects. A European analysis.” Sustainable Cities Soc. 32 (Jul): 181–190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2017.03.026.
Chen, H., Y. C. Chang, and K. C. Chen. 2014. “Integrated wetland management: An analysis with group model building based on system dynamics model.” J. Environ. Manage. 146 (Dec): 309–319. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.05.038.
Crawford, L., and J. Pollack. 2004. “Hard and soft projects: A framework for analysis.” Int. J. Project Manage. 22 (8): 645–653. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2004.04.004.
De Carvalho, M. M., and R. Rabechini. 2015. “Impact of risk management on project performance: the importance of soft skills.” Int. J. Prod. Res. 53 (2): 321–340. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2014.919423.
Eboli, L., and G. Mazzulla. 2011. “A methodology for evaluating transit service quality based on subjective and objective measures from the passenger’s point of view.” Transp. Policy. 18 (1): 172–181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2010.07.007.
Eboli, L., and G. Mazzulla. 2012. “Performance indicators for an objective measure of public transport service quality.” Eur. Transp. 51: 1–21.
Egilmez, G., and O. Tatari. 2012. “A dynamic modeling approach to highway sustainability: Strategies to reduce overall impact.” Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 46 (7): 1086–1096. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2012.04.011.
Ercan, T., N. C. Onat, and O. Tatari. 2016. “Investigating carbon footprint reduction potential of public transportation in United States: A system dynamics approach.” J. Cleaner Prod. 133 (Oct): 1260–1276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.06.051.
Fallah-Fini, S., K. Triantis, H. Rahmandad, and M. Jesus. 2015. “Measuring dynamic efficiency of highway maintenance operations.” Omega-Int. J. Manage. Sci. 50 (Jan): 18–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2014.07.001.
Farhan, J. 2015. “An agent-based multimodal simulation model for capacity planning of a cross-border transit facility.” Transp. Res. Part C Emerging Technol. 60 (Nov): 189–210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2015.08.021.
FHWA (Federal Highway Administration). 2021. Building information modeling (BIM) for infrastructure overview. Washington, DC: FHWA.
Fielding, G. J., R. E. Glauthier, and C. A. Lave. 1978. “Performance indicators for transit management.” Transportation 7 (4): 365–379. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00168037.
Forrester, J., and P. Sange. 1980. Vol. 14 of Tests for building confidence in system dynamics models: TIMS studies in the management sciences, 209–228. Amsterdam, Netherlands: North-Holland Publishing Company.
Forrester, J. W. 2007. “System dynamics—The next fifty years.” Syst. Dyn. Rev. 23 (2–3): 359–370. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.381.
Fransen, K., T. Neutens, S. Farber, P. De Maeyer, G. Deruyter, and F. Witlox. 2015. “Identifying public transport gaps using time-dependent accessibility levels.” J. Transp. Geogr. 48 (Oct): 176–187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2015.09.008.
Gouda, S. K., and H. Saranga. 2018. “Sustainable supply chains for supply chain sustainability: Impact of sustainability efforts on supply chain risk.” Int. J. Prod. Res. 56 (17): 5820–5835. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2018.1456695.
Government of Macao Special Administrative Region Statistics and Census Service. 2021. Transport, storage and communications. Macao, China: Statistics and Census Service.
GovHK (Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government). 2021. “Online application for ad hoc quotas for cross boundary private cars.” Accessed July 24, 2021. https://crossboundaryvehicles1.td.gov.hk/scrp/reservation/enquiry.do?method=summaryResult.
Guevara, J., M. J. Garvin, and N. Ghaffarzadegan. 2017. “Capability trap of the US highway system: Policy and management implications.” J. Manage. Eng. 33 (4): 04017004. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000512.
Gustavsson, T. K., and A. Hallin. 2014. “Rethinking dichotomization: A critical perspective on the use of “hard” and “soft” in project management research.” Int. J. Project Manage. 32 (4): 568–577. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.10.009.
Haghshenas, H., and M. Vaziri. 2012. “Urban sustainable transportation indicators for global comparison.” Ecol. Indic. 15 (1): 115–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2011.09.010.
Haghshenas, H., M. Vaziri, and A. Gholamialam. 2015. “Evaluation of sustainable policy in urban transportation using system dynamics and world cities data: A case study in Isfahan.” Cities 45 (Jun): 104–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2014.11.003.
Hassan, M. N., Y. E. Hawas, and K. Ahmed. 2013. “A multi-dimensional framework for evaluating the transit service performance.” Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 50 (Apr): 47–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2013.01.041.
Hui, E. C., X. Li, T. Chen, and W. Lang. 2020. “Deciphering the spatial structure of China’s megacity region: A new bay area—The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in the making.” Cities 105 (Oct): 102168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2018.10.011.
Ingvardson, J. B., and O. A. Nielsen. 2018. “How urban density, network topology and socio-economy influence public transport ridership: Empirical evidence from 48 European metropolitan areas.” J. Transp. Geogr. 72 (Oct): 50–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2018.07.002.
Ji, J., Z. Zou, and Y. Tian. 2019. “Energy and economic impacts of China’s 2016 economic investment plan for transport infrastructure construction: An input-output path analysis.” J. Cleaner Prod. 238 (Nov): 117761. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.117761.
Jiang, X., and D. H. Du. 2015. “BUS-VANET: A bus vehicular network integrated with traffic infrastructure.” IEEE Intell. Transp. Syst. Mag. 7 (2): 47–57. https://doi.org/10.1109/MITS.2015.2408137.
Jifeng, W., L. Huapu, and P. Hu. 2008. “System dynamics model of urban transportation system and its application.” J. Transp. Syst. Eng. Inf. Technol. 8 (3): 83–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1570-6672(08)60027-6.
Kaewunruen, S., J. M. Sussman, and A. Matsumoto. 2016. “Grand challenges in transportation and transit systems.” Front. Built Environ. 2 (Feb): 4. https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2016.00004.
Laugé, A., J. Hernantes, and J. M. Sarriegi. 2015. “Critical infrastructure dependencies: A holistic, dynamic and quantitative approach.” Int. J. Crit. Infrastruct. Prot. 8 (Jan): 16–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijcip.2014.12.004.
Lin, P., Y. He, and M. Pei. 2020. “Data-driven analysis of traffic volume and hub city evolution of cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.” IEEE Access 8 (Jan): 12043–12056. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2020.2963852.
Locatelli, G., D. C. Invernizzi, and N. J. Brookes. 2017. “Project characteristics and performance in Europe: An empirical analysis for large transport infrastructure projects.” Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 98 (Apr): 108–122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2017.01.024.
Machowski, J., Z. Lubosny, J. W. Bialek, and J. R. Bumby. 2020. Power system dynamics: Stability and control. New York: Wiley.
Macmillan, A., J. Connor, K. Witten, R. Kearns, D. Rees, and A. Woodward. 2014. “The societal costs and benefits of commuter bicycling: Simulating the effects of specific policies using system dynamics modeling.” Environ. Health Perspect. 122 (4): 335–344. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307250.
Naim, M. M., A. T. Potter, R. J. Mason, and N. Bateman. 2006. “The role of transport flexibility in logistics provision.” Int. J. Logist. Manage. 17 (3): 297–311. https://doi.org/10.1108/09574090610717491.
Osman, H. 2012. “Agent-based simulation of urban infrastructure asset management activities.” Autom. Constr. 28 (Dec): 45–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2012.06.004.
Oswald, M., Q. Li, S. McNeil, and S. Trimbath. 2011. “Measuring infrastructure performance: Development of a national infrastructure index.” Public Works Manage. Policy. 16 (4): 373–394. https://doi.org/10.1177/1087724X11410071.
Paez-Perez, D., and M. Sanchez-Silva. 2016. “A dynamic principal-agent framework for modeling the performance of infrastructure.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 254 (2): 576–594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2016.03.027.
Paulley, N., R. Balcombe, R. Mackett, H. Titheridge, J. Preston, M. Wardman, J. Shires, and P. White. 2006. “The demand for public transport: The effects of fares, quality of service, income and car ownership.” Transp. Policy. 13 (4): 295–306. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2005.12.004.
Portugal-Perez, A., and J. S. Wilson. 2012. “Export performance and trade facilitation reform: Hard and soft infrastructure.” World Dev. 40 (7): 1295–1307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.12.002.
Qudrat-Ullah, H., and B. S. Seong. 2010. “How to do structural validity of a system dynamics type simulation model: The case of an energy policy model.” Energy Policy 38 (5): 2216–2224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.12.009.
Reggiani, A., P. Nijkamp, and D. Lanzi. 2015. “Transport resilience and vulnerability: The role of connectivity.” Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 81 (Nov): 4–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2014.12.012.
Rippa, A. 2019. “Cross-border trade and “the market” between Xinjiang (China) and Pakistan.” J. Contemp. Asia 49 (2): 254–271. https://doi.org/10.1080/00472336.2018.1540721.
Rouwette, E. A., and J. A. Vennix. 2020. “Group model building.” In Encyclopedia of complexity and systems science series, 91–107. New York: Springer.
Ruiz, A., and J. Guevara. 2020. “Environmental and economic impacts of road infrastructure development: Dynamic considerations and policies.” J. Manage. Eng. 36 (3): 04020006. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000755.
Sánchez-Silva, M., D. M. Frangopol, J. Padgett, and M. Soliman. 2016. “Maintenance and operation of infrastructure systems.” J. Struct. Eng. 142 (9): F4016004. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0001543.
Sayyadi, R., and A. Awasthi. 2020. “An integrated approach based on system dynamics and ANP for evaluating sustainable transportation policies.” Int. J. Syst. Sci.: Oper. Logist. 7 (2): 182–191. https://doi.org/10.1080/23302674.2018.1554168.
Schwab, K. 2018. “Global findings.” Chap. 1 in The global competitiveness report 2018, 5–22. Switzerland: World Economic Forum.
Skorobogatova, O., and I. Kuzmina-Merlino. 2017. “Transport infrastructure development performance.” In Proc., 16th Conf. on Reliability and Statistics in Transportation and Communication, 319–329. Riga, Latvia: Transport and Telecommunication Institute.
Sohn, C. 2014. “Modelling cross-border integration: The role of borders as a resource.” Geopolitics 19 (3): 587–608. https://doi.org/10.1080/14650045.2014.913029.
Stepp, M. D., J. J. Winebrake, J. S. Hawker, and S. J. Skerlos. 2009. “Greenhouse gas mitigation policies and the transportation sector: The role of feedback effects on policy effectiveness.” Energy Policy 37 (7): 2774–2787. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.03.013.
Sterman, J. D. 2000. Business dynamics. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Sterman, J. D., R. Oliva, K. W. Linderman, and E. Bendoly. 2015. “System dynamics perspectives and modeling opportunities for research in operations management.” J. Oper. Manage. 39 (Feb): 40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jom.2015.07.001.
Sun, X., S. Wandelt, and A. Zhang. 2021. “On the degree of synchronization between air transport connectivity and COVID-19 cases at worldwide level.” Transp. Policy. 105 (May): 115–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.03.005.
Swanson, L. 2001. “Linking maintenance strategies to performance.” Int. J. Prod. Econ. 70 (3): 237–244. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0925-5273(00)00067-0.
Tang, S., K. An, and X. Chen. 2016. “Effect of land use on travel behavior—A case study of Shenzhen using the structural equation modeling framework.” In Proc., 16th COTA Int. Conf. of Transportation Professionals, 2262–2271. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Transport Department of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. 2021. “Monthly Traffic and Transport Digest in April 2021.” Accessed May 6, 2021. https://www.td.gov.hk/filemanager/en/content_5049/2109.pdf.
Vennix, J. A. M. 1996. Group model building: Facilitating team learning using system dynamics. Chichester, UK: Wiley.
Vennix, J. A. M., D. F. Andersen, G. P. Richardson, and J. Rohrbaugh. 1992. “Model-building for group decision support: Issues and alternatives in knowledge elicitation.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 59 (1): 28–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(92)90005-T.
Vickrey, W. S. 1969. “Congestion theory and transport investment.” Am. Econ. Rev. 59 (2): 251–260.
Wang, J., and Y. Selina. 2018. “Case studies on transport infrastructure projects in belt and road initiative: An actor network theory perspective.” J. Transp. Geogr. 71 (Jul): 213–223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2018.01.007.
Wang, J., and H. Yuan. 2017. “System dynamics approach for investigating the risk effects on schedule delay in infrastructure projects.” J. Manage. Eng. 33 (1): 04016029. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000472.
Wang, K., A. K. Ng, J. S. L. Lam, and X. Fu. 2012. “Cooperation or competition? Factors and conditions affecting regional port governance in South China.” Marit. Econ. Logist. 14 (3): 386–408. https://doi.org/10.1057/mel.2012.13.
Xue, J., G. Q. Shen, Y. Li, J. Wang, and I. Zafar. 2020. “Dynamic stakeholder-associated topic modeling on public concerns in megainfrastructure projects: Case of Hong Kong–Zhuhai–Macao bridge.” J. Manage. Eng. 36 (6): 04020078. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000845.
Yan, Y., Y. Qian, H. Sharif, and D. Tipper. 2012. “A survey on smart grid communication infrastructures: Motivations, requirements and challenges.” IEEE Commun. Surv. Tutorials 15 (1): 5–20. https://doi.org/10.1109/SURV.2012.021312.00034.
Yang, J., J. Chen, X. Le, and Q. Zhang. 2016. “Density-oriented versus development-oriented transit investment: Decoding metro station location selection in Shenzhen.” Transp. Policy 51 (Oct): 93–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2016.04.004.
Yao, H., L. Shen, Y. Tan and J. Hao. 2011. Simulating the impacts of policy scenarios on the sustainability performance of infrastructure projects. Autom. Constr. 20 (8): 1060–1069. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2011.04.007.
Yuan, H. 2017. “Achieving sustainability in railway projects: Major stakeholder concerns.” Project Manage. J. 48 (5): 115–132. https://doi.org/10.1177/875697281704800508.
Yuan, H., and J. Wang. 2014. “A system dynamics model for determining the waste disposal charging fee in construction.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 237 (3): 988–996. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2014.02.034.
Zhang, X., Q. Zhang, T. Sun, Y. Zou, and H. Chen. 2018. “Evaluation of urban public transport priority performance based on the improved TOPSIS method: A case study of Wuhan.” Sustainable Cities Soc. 43 (Nov): 357–365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2018.08.013.
Zhang, Y., D. Zou, J. Zheng, X. Fang, and H. Luo. 2016. “Formation mechanism of quick emergency response capability for urban rail transit: Inter-organizational collaboration perspective.” Adv. Mech. Eng. 8 (6): 1687814016647881. https://doi.org/10.1177/1687814016647881.
Zohar, D. 2000. “A group-level model of safety climate: Testing the effect of group climate on microaccidents in manufacturing jobs.” J. Appl. Psychol. 85 (4): 587–596. https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.85.4.587.
Zohar, D. 2002. “The effects of leadership dimensions, safety climate, and assigned priorities on minor injuries in work groups.” J. Organ. Behav. 23 (1): 75–92. https://doi.org/10.1002/job.130.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Management in Engineering
Volume 38 • Issue 3 • May 2022
Copyright
© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 18, 2021
Accepted: Nov 12, 2021
Published online: Feb 7, 2022
Published in print: May 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Jul 7, 2022
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.
Cited by
- Zongchao Wei, Teg Alam, Saleh Al Sulaie, Mohamed Bouye, Wejdan Deebani, Miao Song, An efficient IoT-based perspective view of food traceability supply chain using optimized classifier algorithm, Information Processing & Management, 10.1016/j.ipm.2023.103275, 60, 3, (103275), (2023).
- Keisha LaRaine Ingram, Competitiveness of the Shared Economy Model for Sustainable Management of Logistics Systems, Applied Business: Issues & Solutions, 10.57005/ab.2022.1.2, 1, (10-16), (2022).
- Xinhua Yu, Pengfei Yu, Chao Wan, Di Wang, Weixiang Shi, Wenchi Shou, Jun Wang, Xiangyu Wang, Integrating Virtual Reality and Building Information Modeling for Improving Highway Tunnel Emergency Response Training, Buildings, 10.3390/buildings12101523, 12, 10, (1523), (2022).
- Qiuhu Shao, Junwei Ma, Shiyao Zhu, A System Dynamics Approach for Evaluating the Synergy Degree of Social Organizations Participating in Community and Home-Based Elderly Care Services, Buildings, 10.3390/buildings12091491, 12, 9, (1491), (2022).
- Fereshteh Faghihinejad, Mahshad Mohammadi Fard, Alireza Roshanghalb, Pedram Beigi, A Framework to Assess the Correlation between Transportation Infrastructure Access and Economics: Evidence from Iran, Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 10.1155/2022/8781686, 2022, (1-15), (2022).
- Mohammad Habibzadeh, Mahmoud Ameri, Hassan Ziari, Neda Kamboozia, Seyede Mojde Sadat Haghighi, Presentation of Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting the Severity of Accidents to Propose the Safety Solutions on Rural Roads, Journal of Advanced Transportation, 10.1155/2022/4857013, 2022, (1-29), (2022).
- Haoran Fu, Huahui Li, T. Ramayah, Angran Fu, Abdullah Hasan Jabbar, Azher M. Abed, Effects of Internet of things (IoT) on performance of agricultural in China: A case study, Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects, 10.1080/15567036.2022.2100012, 44, 3, (6466-6482), (2022).
- Tianxin Li, Zhongfu Li, Yudan Dou, Diffusion prediction of prefabricated construction technology under multi-factor coupling, Building Research & Information, 10.1080/09613218.2022.2126343, (1-21), (2022).
- Zhikun Ding, Xinping Wen, Xiaoyan Cao, Hongping Yuan, A GIS and hybrid simulation aided environmental impact assessment of city-scale demolition waste management, Sustainable Cities and Society, 10.1016/j.scs.2022.104108, 86, (104108), (2022).
- Shuai Zheng, Yugang Liu, Yexin Lin, Qiang Wang, Hongtai Yang, Bin Chen, Bridging strategy for the disruption of metro considering the reliability of transportation system: Metro and conventional bus network, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108585, 225, (108585), (2022).
- See more