Nonlinear Dynamic Analyses of Perris Dam Using Transition Probability to Model Interbedded Alluvial Strata
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 148, Issue 1
Abstract
This case study presents an application of a conditional transition probability method for interpreting subsurface stratigraphy for the interbedded alluvium underlying Perris Dam, and evaluating the effects of stratigraphic uncertainty on nonlinear dynamic analysis (NDA) results for design earthquake loading. The challenges involved in synthesizing information from different sources (i.e., geologic conditions, site investigation tools, lab data, field classifications) into soil categories for interbedded alluvium were examined. The application of conditional transition probability methods for developing three-dimensional (3D) realizations of the upper Holocene and lower Pleistocene alluvial strata over a 305-m-wide interval along the dam alignment is described, including challenges with insufficient data and limitations involved with utilizing a stationary, geostatistical method for approximating nonstationary geologic conditions. Two-dimensional (2D) NDA models of Perris Dam were created by slicing the 3D transition probability realizations into five 2D cross sections. The constitutive models PM4Sand and PM4Silt were used to model the sand and clay soil categories in the alluvial strata, as well as the different zones in the embankment. The deformations and variability in deformations for each cross section were compared, and sensitivity studies were completed to examine the impact of several factors, including impacts of the small-strain shear modulus for the alluvium, mean lengths and sills for the alluvium categories, strengths for each alluvium soil category, and different ground motions. NDA cross sections of Perris Dam with uniformly (noncategorical) distributed properties were performed with and without additional deterministic embedded soil lenses, and the deformations were compared with transition probability models and deterministic models completed by others. The use of conditional transition probability models for NDAs of Perris Dam, along with implications and lessons for practice, are discussed.
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Data Availability Statement
Data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The work described here progressed in projects for the California Department of Water Resources under Contract No. 4600009751 and the National Science Foundation under Grant No. CMMI-1635398. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of these organizations. Professor Graham E. Fogg provided assistance with the transition probability modeling. Michael W. Driller and Steven Neumayr from the California Department of Water Resources provided useful insights that strengthened this paper. The authors appreciate the their support and assistance.
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Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 148 • Issue 1 • January 2022
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© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 16, 2020
Accepted: Jul 7, 2021
Published online: Oct 19, 2021
Published in print: Jan 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Mar 19, 2022
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