Feasibility of Using Urban Planning Models to Support Intermediate Traffic Forecasts

This paper focuses on analyzing traffic facilities for an intermediate time frame. There are two methodologies examined in this work, the first uses extrapolated, historical traffic count data and the second uses an urban transportation model. Using several intersections within Huntsville, Ala., as case study intersection locations, this paper applies both methodologies to forecast near-future traffic and compares the forecasted results with the actual traffic counts to determine which methodology better replicated actual volumes. The results of this work indicate that a properly validated and applied urban transportation planning model has the ability to provide more accurate traffic forecasts to support the traffic engineering analysis decision than the commonly used extrapolated traffic trends.